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Table 1 Risk tolerance and the safe carbon budget from 2015 onwards (GtCO2)

From: The safe carbon budget

Risk tolerance = 1 − β 33.3% 10% 1%
Calibration of TCRE based on A MG A MG A MG
Safe carbon budget: PGW = 2 °C 1228 1683 994 1305 766 953
Safe carbon budget: PGW = 1.5 °C 381 521 308 403 238 293
  1. α = 1.276 °C; A = calibration based on Allen et al. (2009, b): mean TCRE = 2 °C/TtC, σ = 0.25; MG = calibration based on Matthews et al. (2009) and Gillett et al. (2013): mean TCRE = 1.45 °C/TtC, σ = 0.3. Ignoring uncertainty, the carbon budget is 1327 GtCO2