Skip to main content

Table 1 Literature defining field crop temperature sensitivity, applied sensitivity factor (SF), and analysis results

From: Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA

Crop Area (km2) SF TR analysis July
> 35 °C > 15 days
Optimum temperature (T opt), maximum temperature at after which yields decline (T max), and failure temperature (T failure) for reproductive yield
Maize
Zea mays
1038 2 2012 area declines 12%; potential area declines 20%
95% TR = 29.5–40.7 °C
Past (35%)
Future (84%)
T opt = 18–22 °C (Muchow et al. 1990); T failure = 35 °C (Herrero and Johnson 1980)
Cotton
Gossypium
2442 1 2012 area declines 6% in area with extensive cotton cultivation; potential area doubles
95% TR = 32.5–41.5 °C
Past (88%)
Future (99%)
T opt = 25°26 °C (Reddy et al. 2005; Oosterhuis 1999); 20–32 °C (Burke et al. 1988; Reddy et al. 1991); 28–32 °C (pollination; (Brown 2008; Snider et al. 2011)); T failure = 35 °C (Reddy et al. 1992, 1997)
Rice
Oryza sativa
2263 1   Past (80%)
Future (100%)
T opt = 23–26 °C (Baker et al. 1995; Horie et al. 2000); T failure = 35 °C (Baker et al. 1995)
Wheat
Triticum
3326 3   Past (50%)
Future (84%)
T opt = 15 °C (Chowdhury and Wardlaw 1978); 20 °C (White et al. 2012); T failure = 34 °C (Tashiro and Wardlaw 1990)
Barley
Hordeum vulgare
569 3   Past (52%)
Future (74%)
T opt = 15–17 °C; T failure = 35 °C (Robertson et al. 2013)
Oats
Avena sativa
110 3   Past (39%)
Future (82%)
T opt = 15 °C (Hellewell et al. 1996; O’Donnell and Adkins 2001); T max = 36 °C (Robertson et al. 2013)
Alfalfa
Medicago sativa
9185 2 2012 area declines 14%; potential area increases 2%
95% TR = 26.5–41.5 °C
Past (43%)
Future (70%)
T opt = 16–21 °C (Al-Hamdani 1990; Arbi et al. 1979; Vough and Marten 1971)
T reduced yield = > 30 °C (Al-Hamdani 1990); T max = 43 °C (Breazeale et al. 1999)
Safflower
Carthamus tinctovius
192 1   Past (43%)
Future (64%)
T opt = 20–30 °C (Fageria 1992); T max = 35 °C (Torabi et al. 2015)
  1. Thermal range (TR) is the summer maximum temperature where 95% of the crop was cultivated in 2012 with analyses reflecting changes in 2012 area and potential cultivation area. July > 35 °C > 15 days represents the percent crop area with more than 15 days with T max > 35 °C. Corn, cotton, rice, and wheat temperature information adapted from Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation (Walthall et al. 2012)
  2. 1 low sensitivity, 2 moderately high, 3 high sensitivity