Table 1 Net global WSA surface increase between the end and the beginning of the twenty-first century according to the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

From: Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change

Scenario 2050–2065 2086–2100
  Quart1 Mean (sigma) %1987–2001 Quart3 Quart1 Mean (sigma) %1987–2001 Quart3
a) GLOBE
RCP 2.6 401 1002 (744) 14% 1399 527 988 (617) 14% 1325
RCP 4.5 933 1307 (556) 16% 1662 805 1403 (924) 19% 1945
RCP 8.5 1520 1560 (465) 19% 1975 2715 3254 (1078) 38% 3717
b) TROPICS
RCP 2.6 216 425 (363) 9% 618 223 409 (269) 6% 484
RCP 4.5 278 459 (382) 10% 713 152 326 (566) 9% 578
RCP 8.5 235 490 (363) 13% 795 808 1020 (487) 23% 1326
c) EXTRA-TROPICS
RCP 2.6 141 576 (504) 33% 905 122 579 (548) 27% 910
RCP 4.5 654 848 (371) 33% 1019 526 1076 (616) 46% 1384
RCP 8.5 855 1291 (551) 51% 1554 2234 2209 (944) 80% 2791
  1. Absolute WSA surface increase between the end (resp. the middle) of the twenty-first century as projected for 3 RCPs with the multi-model ensemble, and the end of the twentieth century, as simulated with the same multi-model ensemble. Absolute increases are given in 103 km2, and in % of the initial surface (end of the twentieth century). “quart1” and “quart3” stand for the first and third quartiles, respectively. “sigma” is the standard deviation between the different models. The “%1987-2001 column” is for the multi-model ensemble mean