The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the impact of spring temperature (ST) and soil water (SW) on wine production volume (WPV) for the period 1933 to 2013 in the Douro region. We employ a state-space regression model to capture possible structural changes in wine production caused by a change in ST and/or SW. We find that the ST explains about 65 % of the variability of WPV. In contrast, the summer SW level increases the R adj-square to 83 % and the Akaike criterion value was lower. We also find interesting dynamic properties of SW and ST. The immediate impact of an increase in SW is negative for WPV, while the SW that is in the ground, i.e. from the previous 2 and 3 years, have a positive effect on actual WPV. Moreover, the individual changes of ST and SW have similar dynamic impact on WPV. Our main finding is that climate change does not only change the variables in question but also the winegrape vineyards adding to the negative impact on WPV levels. As a result we observe a shift of the relative importance away from ST to SW.

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Notes

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    This ability of the Kalman Filter to allow estimated coefficients to vary over time is precisely the reason why we are using it.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Instituto dos Vinhos do Porto e Douro for providing the wine production data and the Associação para o Desenvolvimento da Viticultura Duriense (ADVID-Douro Region Wine Cluster) and Real Companhia Velha, Wine Company for providing the leaf water potential. M. Cunha acknowledges the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia for the sabbatical leave grant (SFRH/BSAB/113908/2015).

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Correspondence to Mario Cunha.

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Cunha, M., Richter, C. The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region. Climatic Change 138, 239–251 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1719-9

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Keywords

  • Soil Water
  • Kalman Filter
  • Spring Temperature
  • Wine Production
  • Wine Region