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Table 1 Sensitivity analysis for the mitigation costs (Trillion USD 2005). The table shows the results for alternative values for pure rate of social time preference (ρ) and cost of backstop technology (pback). The results are shown for RCP2.6 scenario (no permafrost carbon feedback) and for RCP2.6_PCF scenario (with permafrost carbon feedback). The values in brackets refer to the 68 % confidence interval associated with the permafrost emission estimates. The column (ρ = 0.1 % Recalibrated), following Nordhaus 2014, refers to a situation where the decrease in pure rate of social time preference is compensated for by increasing the risk aversion parameter (from α = 1.45 to α = 2.1) in order to maintain the market discount rate

From: Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control

Cost of backstop technology (pback, 2005 US$/tCO2) Scenarios Pure rate of social time preference (ρ, %)
0.1 1.5 3 0.1
(Recalibrated)
100 RCP2.6 8.3 2.4 0.8 2.5
RCP2.6_PCF 8.8 [8.5–9.2] 2.7 [2.5–2.9] 0.9 [0.9–1.0] 2.7 [2.6–3.0]
  % change 3–12 % 5–20 % 8–30 % 5–21 %
344 RCP2.6 27.6 8.1 2.6 8.3
RCP2.6_PCF 29.6 [28.6–31.5] 9.0 [8.5–9.8] 3.1 [2.9–3.5] 9.2 [8.7–10.0]
  % change 4–13 % 6–21 % 8–32 % 5–21 %
1000 RCP2.6 78.2 22.9 7.5 23.5
RCP2.6_PCF 84.0 [81.0–88.6] 25.6 [24.2–27.8] 8.7 [8.1–9.9] 26.8 [24.8–28.4]
  % change 4–13 % 6–21 % 8–32 % 5–19 %
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