Projections of climate change effects on discharge and inundation in the Amazon basin
- 1.5k Downloads
Climate change and its effects on the hydrologic regime of the Amazon basin can impact biogeochemical processes, transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined projections of climate change on discharge and inundation extent in the Amazon basin using the regional hydrological model MGB-IPH with 1-dimensional river hydraulic and water storage simulation in floodplains. Future projections (2070–2099) were obtained from five GCMs from IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5. Climate projections have uncertainty and results from different climate models did not agree in total Amazon flooded area or discharge anomalies along the main stem river. Overall, model runs agree better with wetter (drier) conditions over western (eastern) Amazon. Results indicate that increased mean and maximum river discharge for large rivers draining the Andes in the northwest contributes to increased mean and maximum discharge and inundation extent over Peruvian floodplains and Solimões River (annual mean-max: +9 % - +18.3 %) in western Amazonia. Decreased river discharges (mostly dry season) are projected for eastern basins, and decreased inundation extent at low water (annual min) in the central (−15.9 %) and lower Amazon (−4.4 %).
KeywordsAmazon Basin Water Balance Component Flood Vulnerability Inundation Extent South American Monsoon
The synthetic work for this paper was supported by the Science for Nature and People (SNAP) sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS), Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and the Nature Conservancy (TNC). SNAP funding was provided by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation (Grant # 2013-38757 & #2014-39828), Ward Woods (Grant # 309519), WCS and TNC. Also we thank the editor and reviewers for comments that improved this paper andWalter Collischonn for advice.
- Betts AK, Fisch G, Von Randow C, et al. (2009) The Amazonian boundary layer and mesoscale circulations. In: Keller M et al. (eds) Amazonia and global change. Geophysical monograph, vol 186. AGU:Washington, D. C.. doi: 10.1029/2008GM000720
- Christensen JH, Krishna Kumar K, Aldrian E, et al. (2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In: Stocker TF et al. (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- EPE (2012) Balanço energético nacional 2012: ano base 2011. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (Brasil), Rio de Janeiro, p. 282Google Scholar
- Ferreira-Ferreira J, Silva TSF, Streher AS, et al. (2014) Combining ALOS/PALSAR derived vegetation structure and inundation patterns to characterize major vegetation types in the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, Central Amazon floodplain, Brazil. Wetl Ecol Manag. doi: 10.1007/s11273-014-9359-1 Google Scholar
- Junk W, Bayley PB, Sparks RE (1989) The floodpulse concept in River-Floodplain Systems. In: proceeding of the international large River symposium. Can Spec Publ Fish Aquat Sci 106:110–127Google Scholar
- Marengo J, Nobre CA, Betts RA, Cox PM, Sampaio G, and Salazar L (2009) Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources In: Keller M, Bustamante M, Gash J, Silva Dias P (eds) Amazonia and global change. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C. doi: 10.1029/2008GM000744
- Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, et al. (2007) Global climate projections in climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S et al. (eds) . Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Melack JM (2015) Aquatic ecosystems. In L. Nagy B. Forsberg, Artaxo P (eds) The large-scale biosphere atmosphere programme in Amazonia. Ecological Studies, SpringerGoogle Scholar
- Melack JM, Coe MT (2013) Climate change and the Floodplain Lakes of the Amazon Basin. In: Goldman CR, Kumagai M, Robarts RD (eds) Climatic change and global warming of inland waters: impacts and mitigation for ecosystems and societies. Wiley, Chichester. doi: 10.1002/9781118470596.ch17 Google Scholar
- Teutschbein C, Seibert J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. J Hydrol 12–29. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052
- Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. In: International geophysics series, Vol. 91, 2d edn. Academic Press, Amsterdam, p. 627Google Scholar