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Climatic Change

, Volume 133, Issue 2, pp 301–320 | Cite as

Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia

  • Oussama Zouabi
  • Nicolas Peridy
Article

Abstract

North African countries (NACs) are particularly concerned with climate change because of their geographical position (close to deserts) and their economic dependence on agriculture. We aim to provide additional insight into the impact of climate on agriculture for NACs, through the example of Tunisia. We first use disaggregated data, both at the geographical level (for 24 regions in Tunisia) and at the product level (cereals, olives, citrus fruit, tomatoes, potatoes and palm trees). Second, through spatial panel data analysis, we explore both the time and spatial dimensions of the data. This makes it possible to consider spatial interactions in agricultural production and the role of climate in these spatial spillover effects. Finally, the model not only includes direct climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, but also indirect climate-related variables such as the stock of water in dams and groundwater. Results show that Tunisian agriculture is strongly dependent on the direct effects of temperature and precipitation for all the products considered at the regional level. The presence of dams and groundwater generally has a positive effect on agricultural production for irrigated crops with interesting spillover effects with neighboring regions. However, this impact is still considerably lessened in the case of detrimental climate conditions (indirect effect). These results raise the question of the sustainability of the growth in agricultural production in Tunisia in the case of significant climate change.

Keywords

Citrus Fruit Neighboring Region Spatial Interaction Palm Tree Irrigate Crop 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Supplementary material

10584_2015_1458_MOESM1_ESM.docx (215 kb)
Annex 1 (DOCX 215 kb)
10584_2015_1458_MOESM2_ESM.docx (19 kb)
Annex 2 (DOCX 18.6 kb)
10584_2015_1458_MOESM3_ESM.docx (19 kb)
Annex 3 (DOCX 18 kb)
10584_2015_1458_MOESM4_ESM.docx (21 kb)
Annex 4 (DOCX 21 kb)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.LEAD, Université de ToulonToulonFrance
  2. 2.Université de Tunis El ManarTunisiaAfrica

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