Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming
- 5.4k Downloads
In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981–2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.
KeywordsPrecipitation Extreme Boreal Winter Natural Climate Variability Maximum Daily Precipitation Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation
We thank the Met Office Hadley Center, GHCN, and CRU for making their data available. The work was supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (11 II 093 Global A SIDS and LDCs), by the German research Foundation (CO994/2-1), and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01LN1304A).
- Golyandina N, Nekrutkin VV, Zhigljavsky AA (2001) Analysis of time series structure: SSA and related techniquesGoogle Scholar
- Kwarteng AY, Dorvlo S, Vijaya GT (2009) Analysis of a 27-year rainfall data (1977–2003) in the Sultanate of Oman. 617:605–617. doi: 10.1002/joc
- NOAA National Climatic Data Center (2010), State of the climate: global analysis for annual 2010, Publ. online December 2010, (July 2009), http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/13
- Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. 343:329–343. doi: 10.1002/joc
- Redner S, Petersen MR (2005) On the role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures. Phys Rev E 11. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.74.061114
- Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D et al (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB et al (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230Google Scholar
- Shiu C-J, Liu SC, Fu C, Dai A, Sun Y (2012) How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming climate? Geophys Res Lett 39(17). doi: 10.1029/2012GL052762
- Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P et al (2007) Obervations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Dahe Q, Manning MR, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar