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Response of rice production to elevated [CO2] and its interaction with rising temperature or nitrogen supply: a meta-analysis

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Abstract

We used meta-analysis to synthesize 125 studies assessing the responses of rice production to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), and the interaction of elevated [CO2] with rising temperature or N supply. Elevated [CO2] significantly enhanced rice yield by 20 %, despite no significant increase in grain size and harvest index at elevated [CO2]. Belowground biomass increased at elevated [CO2] to a larger extent than aboveground biomass. Among the Japonica, Indica and Hybrid rice cultivars, Hybrid cultivars generally showed the greatest growth response to elevated [CO2]. The maximum enhancement of rice yield was observed at 600–699 ppm [CO2] with less benefit in studies with lower or higher elevated [CO2] levels. Rice yield responses to elevated [CO2] were smaller in FACE compared with the other fumigation methods, largely associated with lower photosynthesis. Increases in rice yield at elevated [CO2] were constrained by limited N supply. The detrimental effect of rising temperature on spikelet fertility and harvest index were not be fully counteracted by elevated [CO2] effects. Together, the results of this meta-analysis suggest that rising [CO2] and warming accompanied by low N supply are unlikely to stimulate rice production, especially with the current trajectory of emissions scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC-41225003), Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (KYTZ201404), Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (200903003), the Ministry of Education 111 project (B12009), the PADA and Tang Cornell-China Scholarship.

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    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Low Carbon Agriculture and GHGs Mitigation, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, People’s Republic of China

      Jinyang Wang, Cong Wang, Nannan Chen, Zhengqin Xiong & Jianwen Zou

    2. Department of Horticulture, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA

      David Wolfe & Jianwen Zou

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    1. Jinyang Wang
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    2. Cong Wang
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    Correspondence to Jianwen Zou.

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    Grain mass and harvest index showed insignificant response to elevated [CO2].

    Increases in rice yield at elevated [CO2] were constrained by limited N supply.

    Rising temperature negated enhancement in rice yield at elevated [CO2].

    Jinyang Wang and Cong Wang contributed equally to this work.

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    Wang, J., Wang, C., Chen, N. et al. Response of rice production to elevated [CO2] and its interaction with rising temperature or nitrogen supply: a meta-analysis. Climatic Change 130, 529–543 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1374-6

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    • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1374-6

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