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Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A.


We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression using a bathtub model unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Our projections are based upon the association between rising sea level and atmospheric temperature; a 2.3 m rise per each 1 °C increase (Levermann et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 10.1073/pnas.1219414110, 2013). Results are organized into seven regions based upon an assessment of hypsographic and geologic attributes. Each represents an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (10 to 29 % average land loss), higher (15 to 77 % average land loss), and highest (43 to 95 % average land loss). This regional approach is designed to facilitate the implementation of effective adaptation activities by providing a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. The benefits of a regional perspective in formulating an actionable response to climate change have already been demonstrated in south Florida. It is our intent to facilitate regional adaptation activities in other parts of the state and adjacent southern and southeastern seaboard.

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Correspondence to Randall W. Parkinson.

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Parkinson, R.W., Harlem, P.W. & Meeder, J.F. Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A.. Climatic Change 128, 85–98 (2015).

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  • Coastal Wetland
  • Barrier Island
  • Topographic Profile
  • Charlotte Harbor
  • Coastal County