Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 128, Issue 1–2, pp 85–98 | Cite as

Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A.

  • Randall W. Parkinson
  • Peter W. Harlem
  • John F. Meeder
Article

Abstract

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression using a bathtub model unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Our projections are based upon the association between rising sea level and atmospheric temperature; a 2.3 m rise per each 1 °C increase (Levermann et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 10.1073/pnas.1219414110, 2013). Results are organized into seven regions based upon an assessment of hypsographic and geologic attributes. Each represents an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (10 to 29 % average land loss), higher (15 to 77 % average land loss), and highest (43 to 95 % average land loss). This regional approach is designed to facilitate the implementation of effective adaptation activities by providing a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. The benefits of a regional perspective in formulating an actionable response to climate change have already been demonstrated in south Florida. It is our intent to facilitate regional adaptation activities in other parts of the state and adjacent southern and southeastern seaboard.

Keywords

Coastal Wetland Barrier Island Topographic Profile Charlotte Harbor Coastal County 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Archer D (2005) Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geological time. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2004JC002625 Google Scholar
  2. Arkema KK, Guannel G, Verutes G et al. (2013) Coastal habitats shield people and property from sea-level rise and storms. Nat Clim Chang. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1944 Google Scholar
  3. Armour K, Roe G (2011) Climate commitment in an uncertain world. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2010GL045850 Google Scholar
  4. Beever III J, Gray W, Trescott D, et al. (2009a) Comprehensive southwest Florida/ Charlotte harbor climate change vulnerability assessment. Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council and Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program. http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Vulnerability_Assessment_Final.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  5. Beever III J, Gray W, Trescott D et al. (2009b) City of Punta Gorda adaption plan: Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council and Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program Technical Report 09–04. http://www.cakex.org/sites/default/files/Punta%20Gorda.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  6. Beever III J, Gray W, Trescott D et al. (2010a) Lee County climate change vulnerability assessment. Southwest Florida Regional Council. http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Lee_County_Climate_Change_Vulnerability_Assessment.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  7. Beever III J, Gray W, Utley J et al. (2010b) Lee County climate change resiliency strategy. Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council. http://swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Lee_County_Climate_Change_Resiliency_Strategy.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  8. Beever III J, Gray W, Beever L, Cobb D, and Walker T (2012) Climate change vulnerability assessment and adaption opportunities for salt marsh types in southwest Florida. Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program. http://swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Climate_Change/Salt%20Marsh%20Study%202012%20FINAL%20reduced.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  9. Borisova T, Breuer N, and Carriker R (2008) Economic impacts of climate change on Florida: estimates from two studies. University of Florida IFAS Extension Service. http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe787. Accessed 20 February 2014
  10. Deyle R, Bailey K, and Matheny A (2007) Adaptive response planning to sea level rise in Florida and implications for comprehensive and public facilities planning. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State University. http://coss.fsu.edu/d6/durp/sites/coss.fsu.edu.durp/files/WPS_08_02_Deyle.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  11. Donoghue J (2011) Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Clim Chang 107:17–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dow K, Carter L (2013) Climate adaptions in the southeast USA (Chapter 13). In: Ingram K, Dow K, Carter L, and Anderson J (eds) Climate of the southeast United States. Island Press, Washington DC, pp 295–320 http://www.sercc.com/ClimateoftheSoutheastUnitedStates.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  13. Erwin K (2009) Wetlands and global climate change: the role of wetland restoration in a changing world. Wetl Ecol Manag 17:71–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Goelzer H, Huybrechts P, Raper S et al (2012) Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/1748 9326/7/4/045401 Google Scholar
  15. Hallegatte S, Green C, Nicholls R, Corfee-Morlot J (2013) Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hansen J, Kharecha P, Sato M et al (2013) Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature. PLoS One. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 Google Scholar
  17. Harrington J, Walton T (2007) Climate change in coastal areas in Florida: sea level rise estimation and economic analysis to year 2080. Florida State University. http://www.cefa.fsu.edu/content/download/47234/327898. Accessed 20 February 2014
  18. Horton B, Rahmstorf S, Engelhart S, Kemp A (2013) Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quat Sci Rev. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002 Google Scholar
  19. Ingram K, Carter L, Dow K (2013) Climate change in the southeast USA: executive summary (Chapter 1). In: Ingram K, Dow K, Carter L, and Anderson J (eds) Climate of the southeast United States. Island Press, Washington DC, pg 1–7. http://www.sercc.com/ClimateoftheSoutheastUnitedStates.pdf. Accessed February 20, 2014Accessed 20 February 2014
  20. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In Stocker T, Qin D et al. (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/. Accessed 20 February 2014
  21. Jevrejeva S, Moore J, Grinsted A (2012) Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios. Glob Planet Chang 80–81:14–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Kopp R, Simons F, Mitrovica J et al (2009) Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage. Nature. doi: 10.1038/nature08686 Google Scholar
  23. Kousky K (2014) Managing shoreline retreat: a US perspective. Clim Chang. doi: 10.1007/s10584-1106-3 Google Scholar
  24. Levermann A, Clark P, Marzeion B et al (2013) The multi-millennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1219414110 Google Scholar
  25. Monroe County (2013) Monroe County Climate Action Plan. Prepared by the Monroe County Climate Change Advisory Committee. http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/DocumentCenter/View/6596. Accessed 20 February 2014
  26. Moss R, Meehl G, Lemos et al (2013) Hell and high water: practice-relevant adaption science. Science 342:696–698CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Murley J, Alpert L, Matthews M et al. (2003) Economics of Florida’s beaches: the impact of beach restoration. Florida Atlantic University http://www.dep.state.fl.us/beaches/publications/pdf/phase1.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  28. Nicholls R, Marinova N, Lowe J et al (2011) Sea level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4 °C world’ in the twenty-first century. Phil Trans R Soc Am 369:161–181CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. NOAA (2010) Mapping inundation uncertainty. NOAA Coastal Services Center. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/_/pdf/ElevationMappingConfidence.pdf. Accessed 21 August 2014
  30. Parkinson R (1989) Decelerating Holocene sea-level rise and its influence on southwest Florida coastal evolution: a transgressive/regressive stratigraphy. J Sediment Petrol 59(6):960–972Google Scholar
  31. Parkinson R (2009) Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective. In Nelson G and Hronszky J (eds). Sustainability 2009: The Next Horizon. http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/449/Florida_SLR_Adaptation_-_Parkinson_2009.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  32. Parkinson R, Donoghue, J (2010) Bursting the bubble of doom and adapting to sea-level rise. Florida Shore and Beach Preservation Association. http://www.gly.fsu.edu/~donoghue/pdf/parkinson-donoghue-SLR-2010.pdf . Accessed 20 February 2014
  33. Parkinson R, McCue T (2011) Assessing municipal vulnerability to predicted sea level rise: City of Satellite Beach, Florida. Clim Chang 107:203–223CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Parkinson R, White J (1994) Late Holocene erosional shoreface retreat within a silicilastic-to-carbonate transition zone, east central Florida, USA. J Sediment Res 64(3b):408–415CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Parkinson R, DeLaune R, White J (1994) Holocene sea level rise and the fate of mangrove forests within the wider Caribbean region. J Coastal Res 10(4):1077–1086Google Scholar
  36. Parris A, Bromirski P, Burkett V et al. (2012) Global sea level rise scenarios for the U.S. national climate assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/…/NOAA_SLR_r3.pdf. Accessed 20 February 2014
  37. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea level rise. Science 315:368–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Rohling E, Haigh I et al (2013) A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise. Sci Rep. doi: 10.1038/srep03461 Google Scholar
  39. Sanford T, Frumhoff P, Luers A, Gulledge J (2014) The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world. Nat Clim Chang 4:164–166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Schaeffer M, Hare W et al (2012) Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. Nat Clim Chang 2:867–870CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Scott T, Campbell K et al. (2001) Geologic map of the state of Florida. Florida Geological Survey. http://sofia.usgs.gov/publications/maps/florida_geology. Accessed 21 February 2014
  42. Sherwood S, Bony S, Dufresne J-L (2014) Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing. Nature 505:37–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Solomon S, Plattner G-K, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. PNAS 106:1704–1709CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (2012) Regional Climate Action Plan. http://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/pdf/Regional%20Climate%20Action%20Plan%20FINAL%20ADA%20Compliant.pdf. Accessed 21 February 2014
  45. Stanton E, Ackerman F (2007) Florida and climate change: the costs of inaction. Tufts University. http://www.broward.org/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Documents/Florida_lr.pdf. Accessed 21 February 2014
  46. Sweet W, Park J, Marra J, Zervas C, Gill, S. (2014) Sea level rise and nuisance flood frequency changes around the United States. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/NOAA_Technical_Report_NOS_COOPS_073.pdf. Accessed 29 August 2014
  47. Syvitski J (2012) Anthropocene: an epoch of our making. Glob Chang 78:12–15Google Scholar
  48. Titus J, Hudgens D, Trescott D et al (2009) State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sea level along the US Atlantic coast. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044008 Google Scholar
  49. Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council (2005) Sea level rise in the Treasure Coast region. http://www.tcrpc.org/special_projects/TCRPC%20SLR%20Report%2012-05-05.pdf. Accessed 21 February 2014
  50. UNEP (2013) The Emissions Gap Report 2013. United Nations Environmental Programme, Nairbi. http://www.unep.org/emissionsgapreport2013. Accessed 21 February 2014
  51. Vargas J, Flaxman C, and Fradkin B (2014) Landscape conservation and climate change scenarios for the state of Florida: a decision support system for strategic conservation. Summary for decision makers. GeoAdaptive LLC, Boston, MA and Geodesign Technologies Inc., San Franciso CAGoogle Scholar
  52. Veiga C (2014) Miami Beach to spend up to $400 million to deal with flooding issues. Miami Herald. http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/02/12/3931159/miami-beach-to-spend-up-to-400.html. Accessed February 12, 2014
  53. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global seal level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106:21527–21532CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Wanless H, Parkinson R, Tedesco L (1994) Sea level control on stability of Everglades wetlands. In: Davis S, Ogden J (eds) Everglades: the ecosystem and its restoration. St. Lucie Press, Delray Beach, pp 199–224Google Scholar
  55. Weiss J, Overpeck J, Strauss B (2011) Implications of recent sea level rise science for low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. Clim Chang 105:635–645CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Williams S, Gutierrez B (2009) Sea level rise and coastal change: causes and implications for the future of coasts and low-lying regions. Shore Beach 77:13–21Google Scholar
  57. Zhang K, Dittmar J, Ross M, Bergh C (2011) Assessment of sea level rise impacts on human population and real property in the Florida Keys. Clim Chang 107:129–146CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Randall W. Parkinson
    • 1
  • Peter W. Harlem
    • 2
  • John F. Meeder
    • 3
  1. 1.Division of Coastal Zone and Watershed Management, Environmental Remediation and RecoveryEdinboroUSA
  2. 2.Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing CenterFlorida International UniversityMiamiUSA
  3. 3.Southeast Environmental Research CenterFlorida International UniversityMiamiUSA

Personalised recommendations