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Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate

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Abstract

This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Professor Balaji Rajagopalan for his thoughtful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. We also acknowledge the comments of Dr. Francesco Serinaldi and two other anonymous reviewers which led to substantial improvements in the current version. This study is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Award No. EAR-1316536, and the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) Award No. R11AP81451. The first author acknowledges partial financial support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Graduate Student Visitor Program. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA

    Linyin Cheng & Amir AghaKouchak

  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA

    Eric Gilleland & Richard W Katz

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  1. Linyin Cheng
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  2. Amir AghaKouchak
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  3. Eric Gilleland
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  4. Richard W Katz
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Correspondence to Amir AghaKouchak.

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Cheng, L., AghaKouchak, A., Gilleland, E. et al. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate. Climatic Change 127, 353–369 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5

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