Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Climate change drives coherent trends in physics and oxygen content in North American lakes

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Using a 25-year record of monitoring data, we show that recent climate change has affected the thermal properties and oxygen content of seven lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada, and five lakes in north-central Wisconsin, USA. Coherent patterns in autumnal lake warming were driven by increased autumn air temperature in both lake districts. Temperature increases were restricted to the epilimnion and metalimnion of the lakes, resulting in increased thermal stability of the water column. Mixing depths also decreased over the study period. Shallower mixing depths in the Ontario lakes were due to climate-driven increases in lake-water dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Collectively, changes in the thermal regime of the lakes suggest autumn mixing of the water column may be delayed. Metalimnetic oxygen also increased in the Wisconsin lakes, perhaps in response to increased algal production as lake thermal regimes changed. The response of individual lakes to climate change was modified by lake chemistry in the Ontario lake district and by lake chemistry and morphometry in the Wisconsin lake district. Our results demonstrate coherent lake response to climate change and highlight the importance of both regional and local factors in regulating individual lake response to global climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnott SE, Keller B, Dillon PJ, Yan N, Paterson M, Findlay D (2003) Using temporal coherence to determine the response to climate change in boreal shield lakes. Environ Monit Assess 88:365–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baines SB, Webster KE, Kratz TK, Carpenter SR, Magnuson JJ (2000) Synchronous behavior of temperature, calcium, and chlorophyll in lakes of northern Wisconsin. Ecology 81:815–825

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benson BJ, Lenters JD, Magnuson JJ, Stubbs M, Kratz TK, Dillon PJ, Hecky RE, Lathrop RC (2000) Regional coherence of climatic and lake thermal variables of four lake districts in the Upper Great Lakes Region of North America. Freshw Biol 43:517–527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blenckner T (2005) A conceptual model of climate-related effects on lake ecosystems. Hydrobiologia 533:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blumberg AF, Di Toro DM (1990) Effects of climate warming on dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Erie. Trans Am Fish Soc 119:210–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cahill KL, Gunn JM, Futter MN (2005) Modelling ice cover, timing of spring stratification, and end-of-season mixing depth in small Precambrian Shield lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 62:2134–2142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chatfield C (2004) The analysis of time series: an introduction, 6th edn. Chapman and Hall, Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen CY, Folt CL (1996) Consequences of fall warming for zooplankton overwintering success. Limnol Oceanogr 41:1077–1086

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen MR, Graham MD, Vinebrooke RD, Findlay DL, Paterson MJ, Turner MA (2006) Multiple anthropogenic stressors cause ecological surprises in boreal lakes. Glob Chang Biol 12:2316–2322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coats R, Perez-Losada J, Schladow G, Richards R, Goldman C (2006) The warming of Lake Tahoe. Clim Chang 76:121–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daufresne M, Lengfellner K, Sommer U (2009) Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:12788–12793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Stasio BT, Hill DK, Kleinhans JM, Nibbelink NP, Magnuson JJ (1996) Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes: physics, fish, and plankton. Limnol Oceanogr 41:1136–1149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Environment Canada (2004) Threats to water availability in Canada. National Water Research Institute Scientific Assessment Report Series No. 3 and ACSD Science Assessment Series No. 1. Burlington

  • Fang X, Stefan HG (2009) Simulations of climate effects on water temperatures, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous United States under past and future climate scenarios. Limnol Oceanogr 54:2359–2370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fee EJ, Hecky RE, Kasian SEM, Cruikshank DR (1996) Effects of lake size, water clarity, and climatic variability on mixing depths in Canadian Shield lakes. Limnol Oceanogr 41:912–920

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Futter MN (2003) Patterns and trends in southern Ontario lake ice phenology. Environ Monit Assess 88:431–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girard RE, Clark BJ, Yan ND, Reid RA, David SM, Findeis JD (2007) History of chemical, physical and biological sampling methods, sample locations and lake morphometry for the Dorset Environmental Science Centre (1973–2005). Ontario Ministry of the Environment Technical Report Series 2004/1, Dorset

  • Hanson PC, Carpenter SR, Armstrong DE, Stanley EH, Kratz TK (2006) Lake dissolved inorganic carbon and dissolved oxygen: changing drivers from days to decades. Ecol Monogr 76:343–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Helsel DR, Frans LM (2006) Regional Kendall test for trend. Environ Sci Technol 40:4066–4073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR (1984) A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resour Res 20:727–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holloway PE (1980) A criterion for thermal stratification in a wind-mixed system. J Phys Oceanogr 10:861–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hondzo M, Stefan HG (1993) Regional water temperature characteristics of lakes subjected to climate change. Clim Chang 24:187–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) (2013) Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Keller W, Heneberry J, Leduc J, Gunn J, Yan N (2006) Variations in epilimnion thickness in small Boreal Shield lakes: relationships with transparency, weather and acidification. Environ Monit Assess 115:419–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller W, Paterson A, Somers K, Dillon P, Heneberry J, Ford A (2008) Relationships between dissolved organic carbon concentrations, weather, and acidification in small Boreal Shield lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:786–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livingstone DM (2003) Impact of secular climate change on the thermal structure of a large temperate central European lake. Clim Chang 57:205–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livingstone DM, Lotter AF, Kettle H (2005) Altitude-dependent differences in the primary physical response of mountain lakes to climatic forcing. Limnol Oceanogr 50:1313–1325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magnuson JJ, Benson BJ, Kratz TK (1990) Temporal coherence in the limnology of a suite of lakes in Wisconsin, USA. Freshw Biol 23:145–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magnuson JJ, Kratz TK, Benson BJ (2006) Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Monteith DT, Stoddard JL, Evans CJ, deWitt HA, Forsius M, Høgåsen T, Wilander A, Skjelkvåle BL, Jeffries DS, Vuorenmaa J, Keller B, Kopácek J, Vesely J (2007) Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature 450:537–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mortsch LD, Quinn FH (1996) Climate change scenarios for Great Lakes basin ecosystem studies. Limnol Oceanogr 41:903–911

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ontario Ministry of the Environment (OMOE) (1983) Handbook of analytical methods for environmental samples. Technical Report, Toronto

  • Palmer ME, Yan ND, Paterson AM, Girard RE (2011) Water quality changes in south-central Ontario lakes and the role of local factors in regulating lake response to regional stressors. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 68:1038–1050

    Google Scholar 

  • Pérez-Fuentetaja A, Dillon PJ, Yan ND, McQueen DJ (1999) Significance of dissolved organic carbon in the prediction of thermocline depth in small Canadian shield lakes. Aquat Ecol 33:127–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robertson DM, Ragotzkie RA (1990) Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes in response to changes in air temperature. Aquat Sci 52:360–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rusak JA, Yan ND, Somers KM (2008) Regional climatic drivers of synchronous zooplankton dynamics in north-temperate lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:878–889

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sahoo GB, Schladow SG, Reuter JE, Coats R, Dettinger M, Riverson J, Wolfe B, Costa-Cabral M (2012) The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change. Clim Chang 116:71–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schindler DW (2001) The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwaters in the new millennium. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58:18–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schindler DW, Bayley SE, Parker BR, Beaty KG, Cruikshank DR, Fee EJ, Schindler EU, Stainton MP (1996) The effects of climatic warming on the properties of boreal lakes and streams at the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario. Limnol Oceanogr 41:1004–1017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schindler DW, Curtis PJ, Bayley SE, Parker BR, Beaty KG, Stainton MP (1997) Climate-induced changes in the dissolved organic carbon budgets of boreal lakes. Biogeochemistry 36:9–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shuter BJ, Schlesinger DA, Zimmerman AP (1983) Empirical predictors of annual surface water temperature cycles in North American lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 40:1838–1845

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stefan HG, Fang X (1994) Dissolved oxygen model for regional lake analysis. Ecol Model 71:37–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanentzap AJ, Yan ND, Keller B, Girard R, Heneberry J, Gunn JM, Hamilton DP, Taylor PA (2008) Cooling lakes while the world warms: effects of forest regrowth and increased dissolved organic matter on the thermal regime of a temperate, urban lake. Limnol Oceanogr 53:404–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trumpickas J, Shuter BJ, Minns CK (2009) Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures. J Great Lakes Res 35:454–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • van Belle G, Hughes JP (1984) Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality. Water Resour Res 20:127–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster KE, Soranno PA, Baines SB, Kratz TK, Bowser CJ, Dillon PJ, Campbell P, Fee EJ, Hecky RE (2000) Structuring features of lake districts: landscape controls on lake chemical responses to drought. Freshw Biol 43:499–515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Winder M, Schindler DE, Essington TE, Litt AH (2009) Disrupted seasonal clockwork in the population dynamics of a freshwater copepod by climate warming. Limnol Oceanogr 54:2493–2505

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wynne RH, Lillesand TM, Clayton MK, Magnuson JJ (1998) Satellite monitoring of the lake ice breakup on the Laurentian Shield (1980–1994). Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 64:607–617

    Google Scholar 

  • Yan ND (1983) Effects of changes in pH on transparency and thermal regimes of Lohi Lake, near Sudbury, Ontario. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 40:621–626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yao H, Deveau M, Scott L (2009) Hydrological data for lakes and catchments in Muskoka/Haliburton (1978–2007). Ontario Ministry of the Environment Data Report Series 09/1, Dorset

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank staff at the DESC and the Trout Lake Station of the Center for Limnology (University of Wisconsin–Madison and the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research program) for lake sampling and data management. James Rusak (DESC) and researchers at the Center for Limnology are gratefully acknowledged for providing data access and for helpful discussions about the Wisconsin lakes. Three anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments that improved the manuscript. Travel was funded by a grant to M.E.P. from the Ontario Federation of Anglers and Hunters and the Oakville and District Rod and Gun Club. Funding for this work was provided by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and Ontario Graduate Scholarships awarded to M.E.P.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Michelle E. Palmer.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Online Resource

(DOCX 35 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Palmer, M.E., Yan, N.D. & Somers, K.M. Climate change drives coherent trends in physics and oxygen content in North American lakes. Climatic Change 124, 285–299 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1085-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1085-4

Keywords

Navigation