Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

There is currently a huge gulf between natural scientists’ understanding of climate tipping points and economists’ representations of climate catastrophes in integrated assessment models (IAMs). In particular, there are multiple potential tipping points and they are not all low-probability events; at least one has a significant probability of being passed this century under mid-range (2–4 °C) global warming, and they cannot all be ruled out at low (<2 °C) warming. In contrast, the dominant framing of climate catastrophes in IAMs, and in critiques of them, is that they are associated with high (> 4 °C) or very high (> 8 °C) global warming. This discrepancy could qualitatively alter the predictions of IAMs, including estimates of the social cost of carbon. To address this discrepancy and assess the economic impact of crossing different climate tipping points, we highlight a list of scientific points that should be considered, at least in a stylised form, in simplified IAMs. For nine different tipping events, the range of expected physical climate impacts is summarised and some suggestions are made for how they may translate into socio-economic impacts on particular sectors or regions. We also consider how passing climate tipping points could affect economic growth.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell N, Tompkins E, Adger N, Delaney K (2005) ‘Vulnerability to abrupt climate change in Europe’, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

  • Bamber JL, Riva REM, Vermeersen BLA, LeBrocq AM (2009) Reassessment of the potential Sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice sheet. Science 324:901–903

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ciscar JC, Szabó L, van Regemorter D, Soria A (2011) The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into GEM-E3 Europe: methodology and results. Clim Chang 112:127–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz S (2011) High impact, low probability? An empirical analysis of risk in the economics of climate change. Clim Chang 108:519–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz S, Hope C, Patmore N (2007) Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: reflections on the stern review. Glob Environ Chang 17:311–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EPA (2010) ‘Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon’, Environmental Protection Agency, United States Government

  • Fankhauser S, Tol RSJ (2005) On climate change and economic growth. Resource Energ Econ 27:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F (2008) A simple equation for regional climate change and associated uncertainty. J Clim 21:1589–1604

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanemann WM (2008) ‘What is the economic cost of climate change?’ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Higgins P, Vellinga M (2004) Ecosystem responses to abrupt climate change: teleconnections, scale and the hydrological cycle. Clim Chang 64:127–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hope C (2006) The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern. Integr Assess 6:19–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Hope C (2011) ‘The PAGE09 Integrated Assessment Model: A Technical Description.’ Working Paper Series 4/2011., Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

  • Huybrechts P, De Wolde J (1999) The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J Clim 12:2169–2188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R, Schellnhuber HJ (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:5041–5046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuhlbrodt T, Rahmstorf S, Zickfeld K, Vikebø F, Sundby S, Hofmann M, Link P, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Jaeger C (2009) An integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation. Clim Chang 96:489–537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM (2011a) 2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question. Nature 473:7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM (2011b) Beyond 2 °C: redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2:451–461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM (2012) Future climate surprises. In: McGuffie K, Henderson-Sellers A (eds) The future of the World’s climate. Elsevier, Oxford, pp 489–507

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall J, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 105:1786–1793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenton TM, Footitt A, Dlugolecki A (2009) ‘Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector’, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

  • Levermann A, Bamber J, Drijfhout S, Ganopolski A, Haeberli W, Harris NRP, Huss M, Krüger K, Lenton TM, Lindsay RW, Notz D, Wadhams P, Weber S (2012) Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe: review of the current state of six “tipping elements of the climate system”. Clim Chang 110:845–878

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Link PM, Tol RSJ (2004) Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND. Port Econ J 3:99–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Link P, Tol R (2011) Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND. Clim Chang 104:287–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lonsdale K, Downing T, Nicholls R, Parker D, Vafeidis A, Dawson R, Hall J (2008) Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise in the Thames estuary. Clim Chang 91:145–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitrovica JX, Gomez N, Clark PU (2009) The Sea-level fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse. Science 323:753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New M, Liverman D, Schroder H, Anderson K (2011) Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications. Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci 369:6–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls R, Tol R, Vafeidis A (2008) Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND. Clim Chang 91:171–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (1992) An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 258:1315–1319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD (1994) Expert opinion on climatic change. Am Sci 82:45–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world. Models of global warming. MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Olsthoorn X, van der Werff P, Bouwer L, Huitema D (2008) Neo-Atlantis: the Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise. Clim Chang 91:103–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (1999) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:53–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Pollard D, DeConto RM (2009) Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature 458:329–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Posner RA (2004) Catastrophe: risk and response. Oxford University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohling EJ, Grant K, Bolshaw M, Roberts AP, Siddall M, Hemleben C, Kucera M (2009) Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the past five glacial cycles. Nat Geosci 2:500–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schellnhuber HJ (2009) Tipping elements in the Earth System. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:20561–20563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (2006) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz P, Randall D (2003) An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for United States national security. Global Business Network, Emeryville

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith JB, Schneider SH, Oppenheimer M, Yohe GW, Hare W, Mastrandrea MD, Patwardhan A, Burton I, Corfee-Morlot J, Magadza CHD, Fussel H-M, Pittock AB, Rahman A, Suarez A, van Ypersele J-P (2009) Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4133–4137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S, Plattner G-K, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:1704–1709

    Google Scholar 

  • Stern N (2006) The economics of climate change: the stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambrige

    Google Scholar 

  • Weitzman ML (2009) On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Rev Econ Stat 91:1–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weitzman ML (2010) ‘GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 16136

  • Wieczorek S, Ashwin P, Luke CM, Cox PM (2011) Excitability in ramped systems: the compost-bomb instability. Proc Roy Soc Math Phys Sci 467:1243–1269

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK

    Timothy M. Lenton

  2. Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Center, 41092, Seville, Spain

    Juan-Carlos Ciscar

Authors
  1. Timothy M. Lenton
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Juan-Carlos Ciscar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Timothy M. Lenton.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis” edited by Alex L. Marten, Kate C. Shouse, and Robert E. Kopp.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(PDF 109 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lenton, T.M., Ciscar, JC. Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments. Climatic Change 117, 585–597 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0572-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation