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Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality

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Abstract

Through the 21st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s.

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Acknowledgment

We would like to express our gratitude to the California Air Resources Board for their financial support of this research, especially Deborah Drechsler, our project manager. We also thank the editors and three anonymous reviewers who helped make our manuscript stronger.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, USA

    Scott C. Sheridan, Michael J. Allen & Cameron C. Lee

  2. Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

    Laurence S. Kalkstein

Authors
  1. Scott C. Sheridan
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  2. Michael J. Allen
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  3. Cameron C. Lee
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  4. Laurence S. Kalkstein
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Correspondence to Scott C. Sheridan.

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Sheridan, S.C., Allen, M.J., Lee, C.C. et al. Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality. Climatic Change 115, 311–326 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0437-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0437-1

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