Abstract
This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the GTAP-EF model to assess the indirect economic implications. Without adaptation, impacts are quite significant with a large land loss and increase in the incidence of coastal flooding. By the end of the century Malta has the largest relative land loss at 12% of its total surface area, followed by Greece at 3.5% land loss. Economic losses are however larger in Poland and Germany ($483 and $391 million, respectively). Coastal protection is very effective in reducing these impacts and optimally undertaken leads to protection levels that are higher than 85% in the majority of European states. While the direct economic impact of sea-level rise is always negative, the final impact on countries’ economic performances estimated with the GTAP-EF model may be positive or negative. This is because factor substitution, international trade, and changes in investment patterns interact with possible positive implications. The policy insights are (1) while sea-level rise has negative and huge direct economic effects, overall effects on GDP are quite small (max −0.046% in Poland); (2) the impact of sea-level rise is not confined to the coastal zone and sea-level rise indirectly affects landlocked countries as well (Austria for instance loses −0.003% of its GDP); and (3) adaptation is crucial to keep the negative impacts of sea-level rise at an acceptable level.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The economic growth scenarios refer to the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)
This also explains why under the adaptation scenarios some countries like Belgium, Estonia or Denmark experience positive and non negligible land losses.
References
Arnell NW, Livermore MJL, Kovats S, Levy PE, Nicholls R, Parry ML, Gaffin SR (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Glob Env Ch 14:3–20
Bosello F, Roson R, Tol RSJ (2007) Economy wide estimates of the implications of climate change: sea-level rise. Env Res Ec 37:549–571
Breil M, Gambarelli G, Nunes PADL (2005) Economic valuation of on site material damages of high water on economic activities based in the City of Venice: results from a dose-response-expert-based valuation approach FEEM N d L 53.05
Burniaux J-M, Truong TP (2002) GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model, GTAP Technical Paper n.16 (www.gtap.org)
CEC (2007) Limiting global climate change to 2 degrees celsius the way ahead for 2020 and beyond. Commission Staff Working Document, Brussels
Church JA, Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan MT, Qin D, Woodworth PL (2001) Changes in sea level. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (eds) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 639–693
Darwin RF, Tol RSJ (2001) Estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise. Env Res Ec 19:113–129
Deke O, Hooss KG, Kasten C, Klepper G, Springer K (2001) Economic impact of climate change: simulations with a regionalized climate-economy model. Kiel Institute of World Economics, Kiel, WP n° 1065
Delta Commissie (2008) Working together with water. A living land builds for its future. Findings of the Delta Commissie. The Netherlands: Delta Commissie. Downloadable at http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_full.pdf
Dennis KC, Niang Diop I, Nicholls RJ (1995) Sea level rise and senegal: potential impacts and consequences. J Coast Res, Special Issue 14:243–261
Dimaranan BV (2006) Global trade, assistance, and production: The GTAP 6 data base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University
DINAS-Coast Consortium (2006) DIVA: Version 1.0. CD-ROM. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam
Fankhauser S (1994) Protection vs. Retreat – the economic costs of sea level rise. Env Pl 27:299–319
Fankhauser S, Tol RSJ (1996) Recent advancements in the economic assessment of climate change costs. En Pol 24(7):665–673
Gambarelli G, Goria A (2004) Economic evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. FEEM N di L 103.04
Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16(2/3):147–168
Hertel TW (1996) Global trade analysis: modeling and applications. Cambridge University Press, Massachusetts, USA
Hoozemans FMJ, Marchand M, Pennekamp HA (1993) A global vulnerability analysis: vulnerability assessment for population, coastal wetlands and rice production and a global scale, 2nd edn. Delft Hydraulics, Delft
IPCC CZMS (1990) Strategies for adaptation to sea level rise. Report of the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague
IPCC CZM (1991) Common methodology for assessing vulnerability to sea-level rise. Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague
IPCC CZMS (1992) Global climate change and the rising challenge of the sea. Report of the coastal zone management subgroup. IPCC Response Strategies Working Group, Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague
McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis AT, Tol RSJ (2007) A methodology for modelling coastal space for global assessments. J Coast Res 23(4):911–920
Morisugi H, Ohno E, Hoshi K, Takagi A, Takahashi Y (1995) Definition and measurement of a household’s damage cost caused by an increase in storm surge frequency due to sea level rise. J Gl Env Eng 1:127–136
Nakicenovic N, Swart R (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Nicholls RJ, Klein RJT (2005) Climate change and coastal management on Europe’s coast. In: Vermaat JE et al (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future. Environmental Science Monograph Series, Springer, pp 199–226
Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR, Codignotto JO, Hay JE, McLean RF, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 315–356
Pruszaka Z, Zawadzkab E (2008) Potential implications of sea-level rise for Poland. J Coast Res 24:410–422
Roeckner E, Oberhuber JM, Bacher A, Christoph M, Kirchner I (1996) ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Cl Dyn 12:737–754
Saizar A (1997) Assessment of a potential sea level rise on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay. Cl Res 9:73–79
Smith JB, Lazo JK (2001) A summary of climate change impact assessments from the US Country Studies Programme. Cl Ch 50:1–29
Sterr H (2008) Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise for the coastal zone of Germany. J Coast Res 24:380–393
Tol RSJ (2002) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change - part 1: Benchmark estimates. Env Res Ec 21:47–73
Tol RSJ (2006) The DIVA model: socio-economic scenarios, impacts and adaptation and world heritage. DINAS-COAST Consortium, 2006. Diva 1.5.5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, CD-ROM
Tol RSJ (2007) The double trade off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND. Mit Ad Str for Gl Ch 5(12):741–753
Tol RSJ, Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ (2008) Towards successful adaptation to sea-level rise along Europe’s coasts. J C Res 24(2):432–450
Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, McFadden L, Tol RSJ, Spencer T, Grashoff PS, Boot G, Klein RJT (2008) A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. J Coast Res 24(4):917–924
Volonte CR, Arismendi J (1995) Sea level rise and venezuela: potential impacts and responses. J Coast Res, Special Issue 14:285–302
Volonte CR, Nicholls RJ (1995) Uruguay and sea level rise: potential impacts and responses. J Coast Res, Special Issue 14:262–284
Yohe G, Schlesinger M (1998) Sea level change: the expected economic cost of protection or abandonment in the United States. Cl Ch 38:447–472
Yohe G, Neumann J, Marshall P, Ameden H (1996) The economic cost of greenhouse induced sea level rise for developed property in the United States. Cl Ch 32:387–410
Zeider RB (1997) Climate change vulnerability and responses strategies for the coastal zones of Poland. Cl Ch 36:151–173
Acknowledgements
The work has been conducted as part of the PESETA (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on boTtom-up Analysis) EC-funded project whose objective is the multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe for the medium, long-term. The DIVA model was developed within the DINAS-COAST project, which was funded by the European Commission’s Directorate-General Research under contract number EVK2-2000-22024.
We thank Dr. Fabio Eboli and Mr. Ramiro Parrado for their helpful support in the development of the CGE modelling exercise. We also thank Juan Carlos Ciscar for helpful comments. All errors are ours.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bosello, F., Nicholls, R.J., Richards, J. et al. Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise. Climatic Change 112, 63–81 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0340-1