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Climatic Change

, Volume 110, Issue 3–4, pp 783–799 | Cite as

Change-points in climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, 1961–2007

  • Thomas Fischer
  • Marco Gemmer
  • Lüliu Liu
  • Buda Su
Article

Abstract

In this paper, change-points in time series of annual extremes in temperature and precipitation in the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed with the CUSUM test. The data cover the period 1961–2007 for 192 meteorological stations. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature, maximum temperature, warm days, total precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation, and dry days. Significant change-points (1986/87, 1997/98, 1968/69, and 2003/04) are detected in the time series of most of the indicators. The change-point in 1986/87 is investigated in more detail. Most stations with this change-point in temperature indicators are located in the eastern and coastal areas of the basin. Stations with this change-point in dry days are located in the western area. The means and trends of the temperature indicators increase in the entire basin after 1986/87. The highest magnitudes can be found at the coast and delta. Decreasing (increasing) tendencies in total and 5-day maximum precipitation (dry days) are mostly observed in the western and central regions. The detected change-points can be explained by changes in the indices of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon as well as by change-points in wind directions. In years when the indices simultaneously increase and decrease (indices taking reverse directions to negative and positive) higher annual temperatures and lower annual precipitation occur in the Zhujiang River Basin. The high station density and data quality are very useful for spatially assessing change-points of climatic extreme events. The relation of the change points to large-scale oscillation can provide valuable data for planning adaptation measures against climate risks, e.g. for flood control, disaster preparedness, and water resource management.

Keywords

East Asian Summer Monsoon Yangtze River Basin East Asian Winter Monsoon Western Pacific Subtropical High Disaster Preparedness 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Fischer
    • 1
    • 2
  • Marco Gemmer
    • 1
  • Lüliu Liu
    • 1
  • Buda Su
    • 1
    • 3
  1. 1.National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqiPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingPeople’s Republic of China

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