Abstract
Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo (“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Baker AC, Glynn PW, Riegl B (2008) Climate change and coral reef bleaching: an ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends, and future outlook. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 80:435–471
Bouchon C, Portillo P, Bouchon-Navaro Y, Max L, Hoetjes P, Brathwaite A, Roach R, Oxenford H, O’Farrell S, Day O (2008) Status of coral reefs of the Lesser Antilles after the 2005 coral beaching event. In: Wilkinson C, Souter D (eds) Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, pp 85–103
Buddemeier RW, Smith SV (1988) Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research. Coral Reefs 7:51–56
Buddemeier RW, Jokiel PL, Zimmerman KM, Lane DR, Carey JM, Bohling GC, Martinich JA (2008) A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry. Limnol Oceanogr Methods 6:395–411
Burke L, Maidens J (2004) Reefs at risk in the Caribbean. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC
Casey KS, Cornillon P (1999) A comparison of satellite and in situ based sea surface temperature climatologies. J Climate 12:1848–1863
Causey B (2008) Coral reefs of the U.S. Caribbean—the history of massive coral bleaching and other perturbations. In: Wilkinson C, Souter D (eds) Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, pp 61–67
CoastWatch (2009) Pathfinder version 5.0 sea surface temperature: dataset summary. Available http://coastwatch.pfeg.noaa.gov/infog/PH_ssta_las.html. Accessed 5 Jan 2009
Costanza R, d’Arge R, de Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, Hannon B, Limburg K, Naeem S, O’Neill RV, Paruelo J, Raskin RG, Sutton P, van den Belt M (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253–260
Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2005) Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 11:2251–2265
Donner SD, Knutson TR, Oppenheimer M (2007) Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event. Proc Nat Acad Sci 104:5483–5488
Harriott VJ, Banks SA (2002) Latitudinal variation in coral communities in eastern Australia: a qualitative biophysical model of factors regulating coral reefs. Coral Reefs 21:83–94
Hoegh-Guldberg O (1999) Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Mar Freshw Res 50:839–866
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 996 pp
IUCN (2009) Climate change and coral reefs marine working group (CCCR). Available http://www.iucn.org/cccr/. Accessed 17 Mar 2009
Jeffrey C, Clark R, Woody K, Menza C, Caldow C, Kendall M, Monaco M (2006) Coral bleaching and recovery observed at Buck Island, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, October and December, 2005. Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, NOAA. Available http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/products/biogeography/coral_bleaching/welcome.html. Accessed 15 Feb 2009
Jones AM, Berkelmans R, van Oppen MJH, Mieog JC, Sinclair W (2008) A community change in the algal endosymbionts of a scleractinian coral following a natural bleaching event: field evidence of acclimatization. Proc R Soc B-Biol Sci 275:1359–165
Kilpatrick KA, Podesta GP, Evans R (2001) Overview of the NOAA/NASA advanced very high resolution radiometer pathfinder algorithm for sea surface temperature and associated matchup database. J Geophys Res Oceans 106:9179–9197
Kinsey DW (1985) Metabolism, calcification, and carbon production: I. Systems level studies. In: Proceedings, fifth international coral reef congress (Tahiti), vol 4, pp 505–526
Kleypas JA, Buddemeier RW, Archer D, Gattuso JP, Langdon C, Opdyke BN (1999) Geochemical consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Science 284:118–120
Kleypas JA, Buddemeier RW, Gattuso JP (2001) The future of coral reefs in an age of global change. Int J Earth Sci (Geol Rundsch) 90:426–437
Knowlton N (2001a) The future of coral reefs. Proc Nat Acad Sci 98:5419–5425
Knowlton N (2001b) Coral reef biodiversity: habitat size matters. Science 292:1493–1495
Langdon C, Takahashi T, Sweeney C, Chipman D, Goddard J, Marubini F, Aceves H, Barnett H, Atkinson MJ (2000) Effect of calcium carbonate saturation state on the calcification rate of an experimental coral reef. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 14:639–654
Liu G, Strong AE, Skirving W (2003) Remote sensing of sea surface temperatures during 2002 Barrier Reef coral bleaching. Eos Trans AGU 84:137–144
Llewellyn G (1998) Why preserve biodiversity? Building an economic case for preserving coral reefs. J Coast Dev 2:319–328
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC
Moberg F, Folke C (1999) Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems. Ecol Econ 29:215–233
NOAA (2008) Satellite coral bleaching monitoring datasets. Coral Reef Watch – NOAA Satellite and Information Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Available http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hdf/index.html. Accessed 1 Nov 2008
NOAA (2009) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSSTV2). NOAA Satellite and Information Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Available http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ersstv2.php. Accessed 5 Jan 2009
NOAA-IRI (2009) NOAA NCEP EMC CMB GLOBAL Reyn_SmithOIv2 monthly (dataset access page). NOAA – International Research Institute. Available http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.EMC/.CMB/.GLOBAL/.Reyn_SmithOIv2/.monthly/. Accessed 5 Jan 2009
Obura DO, Tamelander J, Linden O (eds) (2008) Ten years after bleaching – facing the consequences of climate change in the Indian Ocean. CORDIO Status Report 2008. CORDIO (Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean)/Sida-SAREC. Mombasa. 489 pp. Available http//:www.cordioea.org. Accessed 15 Feb 2009
Oxenford HA, Roach R, Brathwaite A, Nurse L, Goodridge R, Hinds F, Baldwin K, Finney C (2008) Quantitative observations of a major coral bleaching event in Barbados, Southeastern Caribbean. Clim Change 87:435–449
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625
Riegl BM, Purkis SJ (2009) Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate. Ecol Model 220:192–2008
Rogers CS (2008) Coral diseases following massive bleaching in 2005 cause 60 percent decline in coral cover and mortality of the threatened species, Acropora Palmata, on reefs in the U.S. Virgin Islands. US Geological Survey Fact sheet 2008-3058 (2). Available http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3058/. Accessed 15 Feb 2009
Rogers CS, Miller J, Muller EM, Edmunds P, Nemeth RS, Beets JP, Friedlander AM, Smith TB, Boulon R, Jeffrey CFG, Menza C, Caldow C, Idrisi N, Kojis B, Monaco ME, Sptizack A, Gladfelter EH, Ogden JC, Hillis-Starr Z, Lundgren I, Schill WB, Kuffner IB, Richardson LL, Devine BE, Voss JD (2008) Ecology of coral reefs in the US Virgin Islands. In: Riegl BM, Dodge RE (eds) Coral reefs of the USA. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., pp 303–373
Sheppard CRC (2003) Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean. Nature 425:294–297
Smith SV, Buddemeier RW (1992) Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Ann Rev Ecol Sys 23:89–118
Smith TM, Reynolds RW (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854–1997). J Clim 17:2466–2477
Spalding MD, Grenfell AM (1997) New estimates of global and regional coral reef areas. Coral Reefs 16:225–230
Strong AE, Barrientos CS, Duda C, Sapper J (1997) Improved satellite techniques for monitoring coral reef bleaching. In: Proc 8th Int’l Coral Reef Sym, vol 2, pp 1495–1498
Thornhill D, LaJeunesse T, Kemp D, Fitt W, Schmidt G (2006) Multi-year, seasonal genotypic surveys of coral-algal symbioses reveal prevalent stability or post-bleaching reversion. Mar Biol 148:711–722. doi:10.1007/s00227-005-0114-2
UK Meteorological Office – Hadley Centre (2006) HadISST 1.1 – Global sea-ice coverage and SST (1870–present). British Atmospheric Data Centre. Available http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/hadisst/. Accessed 30 Nov 2008
UNFCCC (2009) The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1349.php. Accessed 1 Apr 2009
Vergara W, Toba N, Mira-Salama D, Deeb A (2009) The potential consequences of climate-induced coral loss in the Caribbean by 2050–2080. In: Vergara W (ed) Assessing the potential consequences of climate destabilization in Latin America, vol 32. World Bank, Washington, DC
Vezina A, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2008) Theme section: effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 373:199–309
Walton CC, Pichel WG, Sapper JF, May DC (1998) The development and operational application of nonlinear algorithms for the measurement of sea surface temperatures with the NOAA polar-orbiting environmental satellites. J Geophys Res C12(103):27999–28012
Wigley TM (2004) MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1: technical manual. Available http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/installation.html. Accessed 30 Nov 2008
Wilkinson C, Souter D (eds) (2008) Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, 152 pp
Woody K, Atkinson A, Clark R, Jeffrey C, Lundgren I, Miller I, Monaco M, Muller E, Patterson M, Rogers C, Smith T, Spitzak T, Waara R, Whelan K, Witcher B, Wright A (2008) Coral reefs of the U.S. Caribbean – coral bleaching in the U.S. Virgin Islands in 2005 and 2006. In: Wilkinson C, Souter D (eds) Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, pp 68–84
Wooldridge SA, Done T (2004) Learning to predict large-scale coral bleaching from past events: a Bayesian approach using remotely sensed data, in-situ data, and environmental proxies. Coral Reefs 23:96–108
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Buddemeier, R.W., Lane, D.R. & Martinich, J.A. Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study. Climatic Change 109, 375–397 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0022-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0022-z