Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and the high expectations surrounding the Copenhagen meeting. One key reason is to what extent fast growing economies, and especially China, should take actions to reduce their growth of emissions. This paper argues that a turning point for international negotiations on climate change could be achieved if China were to agree on carbon obligations in the future. Results from modelling work suggest that the optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years, and that thus future commitments—if credible—could lead to significantly earlier steps towards carbon mitigation. If fast growing economies, and foremost China, believe in the long term objective of global stabilization of carbon concentrations, it might be economically rationale to sign on future targets, provided developed countries take on immediate action. Such a provision could be beneficial for both the developing and developed world.
Blanford G, Richels R, Rutherford T (2009a) International climate policy: a “second best” solution for a “second best” world? Climatic Change Letters (forthcoming)
Blanford G, Richels R, Rutherford T (2009b) Feasible climate targets: the roles of economic growth, coalition development and expectations. Energy Econ. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.003
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Tavoni M (2008) Delayed participation of developing countries to climate agreements: should action in the EU and US be postponed? Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Working Paper N.70-2008
Bosetti V, Carraro C, Tavoni M (2009) Climate change mitigation strategies in fast-growing countries: the benefits of early action. Energy Econ. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.011
Chakravarty S, Chikkatur A, de Conink H, Pacala S, Socolow R, Tavoni M (2009) Sharing global CO2 emission reduction among one billion high emitters. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(29):11884–11888
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Krey V, Richels R, Rose S, Tavoni M (2009) International climate policy architectures: overview of the EMF 22 international scenarios. Energy Econ (in press)
Edmonds J, Clarke L, Lurz J, Wise M (2007) Stabilizing CO2 concentrations with incomplete international cooperation. PNNL working paper
Keppo I, Rao S (2007) International climate regimes: effects of delayed participation. Technol Forecast Soc Change 74(7):962–979
Robins N, Clover R, Singh C (2009) A climate for recovery: the colour of stimulus goes green. HSBC Global Research
This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Sustainable Development Programme of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. The usual disclaimer applies.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
About this article
Cite this article
Bosetti, V., Carraro, C. & Tavoni, M. A Chinese commitment to commit: can it break the negotiation stall?. Climatic Change 97, 297–303 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9726-8
- Climate Policy
- BRIC Country
- International Climate Policy
- Climate Coalition
- Future Obligation