Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 84, Issue 3–4, pp 365–382 | Cite as

Refinement of dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios

  • Torill Engen-Skaugen
Article

Abstract

A method for adjusting dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios representing specific sites is presented. The method reproduces mean monthly values and standard deviations based on daily observations. The trend obtained in the regional climate model both for temperature and precipitation is maintained, and the frequency of modelled and observed rainy days shows better agreement. Thus, the method is appropriate for tailoring dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation values for climate change impact studies. One precipitation and temperature scenario dynamically downscaled with HIRHAM from the Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model at the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg, ECHAM4/OPYC4 GSDIO with emission scenario IS92a, is chosen to illustrate the adjustment method.

Keywords

Regional Climate Model Control Period Scenario Period Temperature Scenario Regional Climate Model Output 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Allen MR, Stott PA, Mitchell JFB, Schnur R, Delworth TL (2000) Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate changes. Nature 407:617–620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Benestad R (2002) Empirically downscaled multimodel ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway. J Clim 15:3008–3027CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Benestad RE, Hanssen-Bauer I (2003) Empirical-based refinement of dynamically downscaled temperature scenarios in southern Norway. Klima report 07/03. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  4. Bjørge D, Haugen JE, Nordeng TE (2000) Future climate in Norway. Research report no 103. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  5. Bronstert A (2004) Rainfall-runoff modelling for assessing impacts of climate and land-use change. Hydrol Process 18:567–570CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Charles S, Bates BC, Whetton PH, Hughes JP (1999) Validation of downscaling models for changed climate conditions: case study of southwestern Australia. Clim Res 12:1–14Google Scholar
  7. Christensen OB, Christensen JH, Machenhauer B, Botzet M (1998) Very high-resolution climate simulations over Scandinavia – present climate. J Clim 11:3204–3229CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Christensen JH, Räisänen J, Iversen T, Bjørge D, Christensen OB, Rummukainen M (2001) A synthesis of regional climate change simulations – a Scandinavian perspective. Geophys Res Lett 28:1003–1006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working Group I to the third assessment report of international panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 525–582Google Scholar
  10. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, Meyer KM, Jeton AE (2004) Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson and American river basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099. Clim Change 62:283–317CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Frei C, Christensen JH, Déqué M, Jacob D, Jones RG, Vidale PL (2003) Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J Geophys Res 108, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002287
  12. Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen J, Hulme M, Von Storch H, Whetton P, Jones R, Mearns L, Fu C (2001) Regional climate information – evaluation and projections. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working Group I to the third assessment report of international panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 583–638Google Scholar
  13. Hanssen-Bauer I, Tveito OE, Førland EJ (2000) Temperature scenarios for Norway. Empirical downscaling from ECHAM4/OPYC3. Klima report 24/00. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  14. Hanssen-Bauer I, Tveito OE, Førland EJ (2001) Precipitation scenarios for Norway. Empirical downscaling from ECHAM4/OPYC3. Klima report 10/01. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  15. Hanssen-Bauer I, Førland EJ, Tveito OE (2003) Temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway: comparison of results from dynamical and empirical downscaling. Clim Res 25:15–27Google Scholar
  16. Houghton DR (1985) Handbook of applied meteorology. Wiley, New York, pp 1461Google Scholar
  17. Kaste Ø, Wright RF, Barkved LJ, Bjerkeng B, Engen-Skaugen T, Magnusson J, Sælthun NR (2006) Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system. Sci Total Environ 365:200–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Kidson JW, Thompson CS (1998) A comparison of statistical and model-based downscaling techniques for estimating local climate variations. J Clim 11:735–753CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Mitchell JFB, Karoly DJ, Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Allen MR, Marengo J (2001) Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working Group I to the third assessment report of international panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 695–738Google Scholar
  20. Moore III B, Gates WL, Mata LJ, Underdal A (2001) Advancing our understanding. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working Group I to the third assessment report of international panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 769–785Google Scholar
  21. Murphy J (1999) An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J Clim 12:2256–2284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. O’Brien TP, Sornette D, McPherron RL (2001) Statistical asynchronous regression: Determining the relationship between two quantities that are not measured simultaneously. J Geophys Res 106:13247–13259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Prudhomme C, Reynard N, Crooks S (2002) Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now? Hydrol Process 16:1137–1150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Räisänen J (2001) CO2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments. Quantification of agreement and role of international variability. J Clim 14:2088–2104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Reichert BK, Bengtsson L, Åkesson O (1999) A statistical modelling approach for the simulation of local paleoclimatic proxy records using general circulation model output. J Geophys Res 104:19071–19083CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Reynard NS, Prudhomme C, Crooks SM (2001) The flood characteristics of large U.K. rivers: Potential effects of changing climate and land use. Clim Change 48:343–359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Christoph M, Claussen M, Dümenil L, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. MPI Rep no 218. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, DeutschlandGoogle Scholar
  28. Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulphur cycle. J Clim 12:3004–3032CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Rummukainen M, Räisänen J, Bjørge D, Christensen JH, Christensen OB, Iversen T, Jylhä K, Ólafsson H, Tuomenvirta H (2003) Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies. Nord Hydrol 34(5):399–412Google Scholar
  30. Skaugen TE, Tveito OE (2004) Growing season and degree-days scenario in Norway for the period 2021–2050. Clim Res 26:221–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Skaugen TE, Hanssen-Bauer I, Førland EJ (2002) Adjustment of dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation data in Norway. Klima report no 20/02. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  32. Sælthun NR, Aittonemi P, Bergstrøm S, Einarsson K, Jòhannesson T, Lindström G, Ohlsson P-E, Thomsen T, Vehviläinen B, Aamodt KO (1998) Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project “climate change and energy production.” Tema Nord 1998:552. ISBN 92-893-0212-7. ISSN 0908-6692. Copenhagen, p 170Google Scholar
  33. Tveito OE, Førland EJ, Heino R, Hanssen-Bauer I, Alexandersson H, Dahlström Drebs A, Kern-Hansen C, Jónsson T, Vaarby Laursen E, Westman T (2000) Nordic temperature maps. Klima report no 09/00. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, OsloGoogle Scholar
  34. Tveito OE, Bjørdal I, Skjelvåg AO, Aune B (2005) A GIS-based agro-economical decision system based on gridded climatology. Meteorol Appl 12:57–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J Geophys Res 107(D20), 4429/doi: 10.1029/2001JD000659
  36. Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 62:189–216CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOsloNorway

Personalised recommendations