Climatic Change

, Volume 81, Supplement 1, pp 179–192 | Cite as

Circulation statistics and climate change in Central Europe: PRUDENCE simulations and observations

  • Aad van Ulden
  • Geert Lenderink
  • Bart van den Hurk
  • Erik van Meijgaard
Open Access


PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes in the summer climate in Central Europe.


Regional Model Control Simulation Circulation Index Westerly Flow Global Couple Climate Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Aad van Ulden
    • 1
  • Geert Lenderink
    • 1
  • Bart van den Hurk
    • 1
  • Erik van Meijgaard
    • 1
  1. 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)De BiltThe Netherlands

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