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A Cumulative Substance Use Score as a Novel Measure to Predict Risk of Criminal Recidivism in Forensic Juvenile Male Outpatients

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Abstract

This longitudinal study aimed to evaluate a newly developed cumulative measure for substance use problems as predictor of criminal recidivism in youth. Questionnaires-based substance-related behaviors (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and further drugs), and interview-based psychiatric disorders were assessed in a sample of 142 male adolescent forensic outpatients in Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 16.8 years, SD = 1.4 years). Cox regressions were used to test whether substance use behaviors/disorders were predictors of officially recorded criminal offenses 365 days after the initial assessment. The cumulative substance problem score (SPS) was a valid measure for assessing the risk of criminal recidivism for youth having 2–3 (OR 2.24–2.56) and 4+ problems (OR 3.40–4.37) in comparison to youth with 0–1 problems. Forensic experts and clinicians should comprehensively assess substance use patterns in juvenile offenders and may use the SPS as an indicator for further criminal risks. Additional analysis of the SPS in other forensic samples and cultures would be worthwhile.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Child and Youth Forensic Service, University Hospital of Psychiatry, Neptunstrasse 60, 8032, Zurich, Switzerland

    Marcel Aebi & Cornelia Bessler

  2. Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Hospital of Psychiatry, Zurich, Switzerland

    Marcel Aebi & Hans-Christoph Steinhausen

  3. Clinical Psychology and Epidemiology, Institute of Psychology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland

    Hans-Christoph Steinhausen

  4. Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

    Hans-Christoph Steinhausen

  5. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Centre, Capital Region Psychiatry, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Hans-Christoph Steinhausen

Authors
  1. Marcel Aebi
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  2. Cornelia Bessler
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  3. Hans-Christoph Steinhausen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marcel Aebi.

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All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

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Aebi, M., Bessler, C. & Steinhausen, HC. A Cumulative Substance Use Score as a Novel Measure to Predict Risk of Criminal Recidivism in Forensic Juvenile Male Outpatients. Child Psychiatry Hum Dev 52, 30–40 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10578-020-00986-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10578-020-00986-7

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