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Back to the future: conserving functional and phylogenetic diversity in amphibian-climate refuges

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Abstract

Climate refuges have been used by several species over historical climate change. Ectothermic species often display good models for climate change studies because they are highly sensitive to temperature. Analysis of species loss with ecosystem and evolutionary values helps to understand environmental processes and climate change consequences. We determined the functional and phylogenetic diversity of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, using multiple models representing present and future conditions. Through a novel approach, we predict species’ threat status by 2080, following the IUCN’s criterion B1. Our results estimate a drastic reduction in species richness, ecosystem functioning and evolutionary history at low latitudes and altitudes. We show that species will tend to disperse to the areas with milder temperatures (i.e., high latitudes/altitudes). Some of these areas are the same climate refuges that have been suggested for the Late Pleistocene. We highlight that 60% of amphibians can become threatened under predicted-future conditions. This work advances the knowledge on climate refuges for amphibian ecology and evolution, supporting complementary tools for conservation strategies.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Thiago F. Rangel for providing computational access to the platform Bioensembles. We are grateful to the Asociación Española de Ecología Terrestre (AEET) for the research award granted to conduct this research. We thank the Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (CSIC-UPF) for making the use of lab computers available. We thank the CNPq (140710/2013-2; 152303/2016-2) and the CAPES Foundation (99999.001180/2013-04) for the financial support in this work. We also thank the Technical and Scientific Committee of the Forest Institute of São Paulo (COTEC), Environmental Institute of Paraná (IAP), and the Chico Mendes Institute for the logistical support and sampling permits (ICMBio/SISBIO: 30344; 44755).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais (PEA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil

    Ricardo Lourenço-de-Moraes & Rogério P. Bastos

  2. Laboratório de Herpetologia e Comportamento Animal, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Campus Samambaia, 74001-970, Goiânia, GO, Brazil

    Ricardo Lourenço-de-Moraes

  3. Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    Felipe S. Campos

  4. Laboratório de Ecologia e Conservação de Herpetofauna, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia de Ecossistemas, Universidade Vila Velha, 29102-920, Vila Velha, ES, Brazil

    Rodrigo B. Ferreira

  5. Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, 45662-000, Ilhéus, BA, Brazil

    Mirco Solé

  6. Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, 84322-5230, Logan, UT, USA

    Karen H. Beard

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  1. Ricardo Lourenço-de-Moraes
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Lourenço-de-Moraes, R., Campos, F.S., Ferreira, R.B. et al. Back to the future: conserving functional and phylogenetic diversity in amphibian-climate refuges. Biodivers Conserv 28, 1049–1073 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01706-x

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