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Increased mammalian predators and climate ch1ange predict declines in breeding success and density of Capercaillie tetrao urogallus, an old stand specialist, in fragmented Scottish forests

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Abstract

Low breeding success has been associated with declines in population and range of the re-introduced Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland. Annual breeding success from 26 Scottish forests surveyed between 1991 and 2009 averaged only 0.6 chicks per female, the lowest rate recorded in 16 previous studies. Reduced breeding success was due to proportionally fewer females rearing chicks rather than a reduction in brood size. Birds bred less well in Perthshire at the southern edge of the range, where declines in indices of female and male density were highest. Only at the core of the range (Strathspey), where birds bred better, were female densities stable. Two weather variables, April temperature in the pre-breeding period (APRTEMP), and temperature at chick hatch in June (HATCHTEMP), increased over the study period. Indices of Pine Marten Martes martes increased 3.9-fold since 1995, and those of Red Fox Vulpes vulpes by 2.2-fold, whereas those of Carrion Crow Corvus corone, raptors and forest floor vegetation showed no change. Neither forest type nor forest ground vegetation appeared to influence breeding success. Instead, females reared more chicks in years when hatch time in June was drier, and in forests with lower marten and crow indices. In addition, more females reared broods in years when Aprils were cooler. Brood size was unaffected by any of the measured variables. Densities of adult birds were lower in forests with higher fox indices. Increased predation of clutches and chicks by martens and crows within these small, fragmented forests, as well as changes in climate, may explain reductions in breeding success and hence contribute to continued declines. Successful conservation of Capercaillie in remaining Strathspey strongholds may require better predator management, including a licensed removal of martens to test the hypotheses that martens contribute to reduced breeding success. This short-medium term approach will inform longer-term predator management policies and complement aspirations to increase the area and connectivity of forest habitat to benefit Capercaillie in-part through mitigating against any impact of increasing forest-edge predators.

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Acknowledgments

We thank land managers for access. Field assistance was provided by Mark Andrew, Paul Baker, Mick Canham, Norman Cobley, Kathy Fletcher, Isla Graham, Rupert Hawley, Andrew Hoodless, David Howarth, David Lambie, Fiona Leckie, Robert Moss, Raymond Parr, Adam Smith, Philip Warren, John Woods and staff at RSPB Abernethy & Craigmore. Stewart A’Hara of Forest Research analysed DNA from mammalian scats. Weather data were provided to Melanie Brown by the UK Meteorological Office supplied through Natural Environmental Research Council Data Centres for her undergraduate thesis. Jerry Wilson, Ron Summers (RSPB), Kenny Kortland (Forest Enterprise Scotland), Megan Davies, Susan Haysom (Scottish Natural Heritage). Funding was from SNH and GWCT.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust, The Coach House, Eggleston Hall, Eggleston, Barnard Castle, Co. Durham, DL12 0AG, UK

    David Baines

  2. The Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust, Fordingbridge, SP6 1EF, Hampshire, UK

    Nicholas J. Aebischer

  3. The Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust, Drumochter Lodge, Dalwhinnie, PH19 1AF, Inverness-shire, UK

    Allan Macleod

Authors
  1. David Baines
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  2. Nicholas J. Aebischer
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  3. Allan Macleod
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Correspondence to David Baines.

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Communicated by Karen E. Hodges.

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Baines, D., Aebischer, N.J. & Macleod, A. Increased mammalian predators and climate ch1ange predict declines in breeding success and density of Capercaillie tetrao urogallus, an old stand specialist, in fragmented Scottish forests. Biodivers Conserv 25, 2171–2186 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1185-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1185-8

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