Biodiversity & Conservation

, Volume 14, Issue 13, pp 3305–3324 | Cite as

Modeling Spatial Trends in Estimated Species Richness using Breeding Bird Survey Data: A Valuable Tool in Biodiversity Assessment

  • Frederic Jiguet
  • Romain Julliard
  • Denis Couvet
  • Aurelie Petiau


We used data from the French breeding bird survey to estimate local bird species richness within sampled sites, using capture–recapture models. We investigated the possible effects of habitat structure and composition (landscape fragmentation, habitat cover and diversity) on estimated species richness at a local scale, and used the identified trends to help with modeling species richness at a large spatial scale. We performed geostatistical analyses based on spatial autocorrelation – cokriging models – to interpolate estimated species richness over the entire country, providing an opportunity to predict species-rich areas. We further compared species richness obtained with this method to species and rarity richness obtained using a national atlas of breeding birds. Estimated species richness was higher in species richness hotspots identified by the atlas. Combining informations on rare species from Atlas and species richness estimates from sound sampling based schemes should help with identifying species-rich areas for various taxa and locating biodiversity hotspots to be protected as high conservation value areas, especially in temperate zones where diversity hotspots are likely to match centers of high species richness because of very few centers of true endemicity.


Breeding bird atlas Capture–recapture Detection probability Kriging Landscape fragmentation Spatial autocorrelation Species richness 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Anderson, R.P., Lew, D., Peterson, A.T. 2003Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal modelsEcol. Model.162211232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Andrèn, H. 1994Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscape with different proportions of suitable habitat: a reviewOikos71355366Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Augustin, N.H., Mugglestone, M.A., Buckland, S.T. 1996An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlifeJ. Appl. Ecol.33339347Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Balmford, A., Long, A. 1995Across-country analyses of biodiversity congruence with current conservation efforts in the tropicsConserv. Biol.915391547CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Boone, R.B., Krohn, W.B. 1999Modeling the occurrence of bird species: are the errors predictable?Ecol. Appl.9835848Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Boone, R.B., Krohn, W.B. 2002Modeling tools and accuracy assessmentScott, J.M.Heglund, P.J.Morrison, M.L.Haufler, J.B.Raphael, M.G.Wall, W.A.Samson, F.B. eds. Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and ScaleIsland PressWashington, DC265270Google Scholar
  7. 8.
    Boulinier, T., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E., Sauer, J.R., Flather, C.H., Pollock, K.H. 2001Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scalesEcology82 11591169Google Scholar
  8. 7.
    Boulinier, T., Nichols, J.D., Sauer, J.R., Hines, J.E., Pollock, K.H. 1998Estimating species richness: the importance of heterogeneity in species detectabilityEcology7910181028Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Brooks, T.M., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Rylands, A.B., Konstant, W.R., Flick, P., Pilgrim, J., Oldfield, S., Magin, G., Hilton-Taylor, C. 2002Habitat loss and extinction in the hotspots of biodiversityConserv. Biol.16909923CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Bunge, J., Fitzpatrick, M. 1993Estimating the number of species: a reviewJ. Am. Stat. Assoc.88364373Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Burnham, K.P., Overton, W.S. 1978Estimation of the size of a closed population when capture probabilities vary among animalsBiometrika65625633Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Burnham, K.P., Overton, W.S. 1979Robust estimation of population size when capture probabilities vary among animalsEcology60927936Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Chen, G.-J., Peterson, A.T. 2000A new technique for predicting distribution of terrestrial vertebrates using inferential modelingZool. Res.21231237Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Chiles, J., Delfiner, P. 1999Geostatistics. Modeling Spatial UncertaintyJohn Wiley and SonsNew YorkGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Conroy, M.J., Noon, B.R. 1996Mapping of species richness for conservation of biological diversity: conceptual and methodological issuesEcol. Appl.6763773Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Cressie, N. 1993Statistics for Spatial DataRevised ed.John Wiley and SonsNew YorkGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Debinsky, D.M., Holt, R.D. 1999A survey and overview of habitat fragmentation experimentsConserv. Biol.14342355CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. 18.
    Dennis, R.L.H., Thomas, C.D. 2000Bias in butterfly distribution maps: the influence of hot spots and accessJ. Insect Conserv.47377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. 19.
    Dennis, R.L.H., Shreeve, T.G., Sparks, T.H., Lhonore, J.E. 2002A comparison of geographical and neighbourdhood models for improving atlas databases. The case of the French butterfly atlasBiol. Conserv.108143159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. 20.
    Dorazia, R.M., Royle, J.A. 2003Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individualsBiometrics59351364CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Fahrig, L., Merriam, G. 1994Conservation of fragmented populationsConserv. Biol.85059CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Feria-A, T.P., Peterson, A.T. 2002Prediction of bird community composition based on point-occurrence data and inferential algorithms: a valuable tool in biodiversity assessmentsDiv. Distrib.84956CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Fertig, W., Reiners, W.A. 2002Predicting presence/absence of plant species for range mapping: a case study from WyomingScott, J.M.Heglund, P.J.Morrison, M.L.Haufler, J.B.Raphael, M.G.Wall, W.A.Samson, F.B. eds. Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and ScaleIsland PressWashington, DC483489Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Fisher, R.A., Corbet, A.S., Williams, C.B. 1943The relation between the number of species and the number of individuals in a random sample of an animal populationJ. Animal Ecol.12 4258Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Gaston, K.J. 1994RarityChapman and HallLondonGoogle Scholar
  26. 26.
    Gleason, H.A. 1922On the relation between species and areaEcology3158162Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Herkert, J.R. 1994The effects of habitat fragmentation on midwestern grassland bird communitiesEcol. Appl.4461471Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    Howell, C.A., Latta, S.C., Donovan, T.M., Porneluzi, P.A., Parks, G.R., Faaborg, J. 2000Landscape effects mediate breeding bird abundance in Midwestern forestsLandscape Ecol.15547562CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. 29.
    Hughes, T.P., Bellwood, D.R., Connolly, S.R. 2002Biodiversity hotspots, centres of endemicity, and the conservation of coral reefsEcol. Lett.5775784CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Jiguet, F., Julliard, R. 2003Suivi Temporel des Oiseaux Communs. Bilan des réseaux nationaux de France pour l' année 2002Ornithos10211Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    Jiguet F., Renault O. and Petiau A. in press. Estimating species richness with capture–recapture models: which model to use when sampling in heterogeneous conditions? Bird study.Google Scholar
  32. 32.
    Johnston, K., Ver Hoef, J.M., Krivoruchko, K., Lucas, N. 2001Using ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst. GIS by ESRIESRIRedlands, CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Julliard, R., Jiguet, F. 2002Un suivi intégré des populations d' oiseaux communs en FranceAlauda70137147Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Karl, J.W., Heglund, P.J., Garton, E.O., Scott, J.M., Wright, N.M., Hutto, R.L. 2000Sensitivity of species–habitat relationship model performance to factors of scaleEcol. Appl.1016901705Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    Keating, K.A., Quinn, J.F., Ivie, M.A., Ivie, L.L. 1998Estimating the effectiveness of further sampling in species inventoriesEcol. Appl.812391249Google Scholar
  36. 36.
    Legendre, P. 1993Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm?Ecology7416591673Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Lachman, G.B., Droege, S., Royle, J.A., Langtimm, C.A. 2002Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than oneEcology83 22482255Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Hines, J.E., Knutson, M.G., Franklin, A.B. 2003Estimating site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectlyEcology8422002207Google Scholar
  39. 39.
    MathSoft Inc. 1999. S-Plus 2000, Modern Statistics and Advanced Graphics. Data Analysis Products Division. MathSoftSeattleWashington.Google Scholar
  40. 40.
    Myers, N. 1988Threatened biotas: “hot spots” in tropical forestsEnvironmentalist8187208PubMedGoogle Scholar
  41. 42.
    Nichols, J.D., Boulinier, T., Hines, J.E., Pollock, K.H., Sauer, J.R. 1998Inference methods for spatial variation in species richness and community composition when not all species are detectedConserv. Biol.1213901398CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. 41.
    Nichols J.D. and Conroy M.J. 1996. Estimation of species richness. In: Wilson D.E., Cole R.F., Nichols J.D., Rudran R. and Foster M. (eds), Measuring and Monitoring Biological Diversity. Standard Methods for Mammals. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, DC, pp. 226–234.Google Scholar
  43. 45.
    Peterson, J.T., Dunham, J. 2003Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull troutConserv. Biol.1710701077CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. 44.
    Peterson, A.T., Egbert, S.L., Sánchez-Cordero, V., Price, K.P. 2000Geographic analysis of conservation priority: endemic birds and mammals in Veracruz, MexicoBiol. Conserv.938594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. 46.
    Prendergast, J.R., Quinn, R.M., Lawton, J.H., Eversham, B.C., Gibbons, D.W. 1993Rare species, the coincidence of diversity hotspots and conservation strategiesNature365335337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. 47.
    Rexstad, E., Burnham, K.P. 1991User's Guide for Interactive Program CAPTURE. Abundance Estimation of Closed Animal PopulationsColorado State UniversityFort Collins, ColoradoGoogle Scholar
  47. 48.
    Ricketts, T.H., Daily, G.C., Ehrlich, P.R., Fay, J.P. 1999Countryside biogeography of moths in a fragmented landscape: biodiversity in native and agricultural habitatsConserv. Biol.15378388CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. 49.
    Royle, J.A. 2004N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated countsBiometrics60108115CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  49. 50.
    Scott, J.M.Heglund, P.J.Morrison, M.L.Haufler, J.B.Raphael, M.G.Wall, W.A.Samson, F.B. eds. 2002Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Accuracy and ScaleIsland PressWashington, DCGoogle Scholar
  50. 51.
    Svensson, L. 2001The correct name of the Iberian Chiffchaff Phylloscopus ibericus Ticehurst 1937, its identification and new evidence of its groundsBull. Brit. Ornithol. Club121281296Google Scholar
  51. 52.
    Verner, J., Morrison, M.L., Ralph, C.J. 1986Wildlife 2000: Modeling Habitat Relationships of Terrestrial VertebratesUniversity of Wisconsin PressMadisonGoogle Scholar
  52. 53.
    Williams, P., Gibbons, D., Margules, C., Rebelo, A., Humphries, C., Pressey, R. 1996A comparison of richness hotspots, rarity hotspots and complementary areas for conserving diversity of British BirdsConserv. Biol.10155174CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. 54.
    Yeatman-Berthelot, D., Jarry, G. 1994Nouvel Atlas des Oiseaux Nicheurs de FranceSociété Ornithologique de FranceParisGoogle Scholar
  54. 55.
    Yoccoz, N.G., Nichols, J.D., Boulinier, T. 2001Monitoring of biological diversity in space and timeTrends Ecol. Evol.16446453CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Frederic Jiguet
    • 1
  • Romain Julliard
    • 1
  • Denis Couvet
    • 1
  • Aurelie Petiau
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d' OiseauxUMR 5173 'Conservation des espèces, restauration et suivi des populations' , Muséum National d' Histoire NaturelleParisFrance

Personalised recommendations