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Effect of geographic background and equilibrium state on niche model transferability: predicting areas of invasion of Leptoglossus occidentalis

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Abstract

Niche conservatism providing support for using ecological niche modeling in biological invasions has been widely noticed, however, the equilibrium state and geographic background effect on niche model transferability has received scant attention. The western conifer seed bug, Leptoglossus occidentalis, native to western North America, has expanded its range eastward and has become an invasive pest in Europe and Asia. Niche models calibrated on the ranges of a small native population and two large expanding populations were compared. We found that the climate niche of L. occidentalis is conserved during its steady expansion in North America and rapid spread in Europe. Models based on the small western native range successfully captured the eastern expanding and introduced European populations, whereas the large area-based models varied with the presumed state of equilibrium. The equilibrium state based model succeeded but the non-equilibrium based model failed to predict the range in Europe. Our study estimates global invasion risk zones for L. occidentalis and suggests that, based on niche conservatism, modeling based on a reasonable geographic distribution at a climatic equilibrium of a species could guarantee the transferability of niche model prediction. Caution is warranted in interpreting low niche model transferability with niche differentiation and forwarding message for management strategy.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this research was supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2012M510744 and 20110490769), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (J0630963), the institutional support of the Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic for the National Museum, Prague (DKRVO MK-S 760/2012 and 2013/12 OVV), and a talent introduction program award to Gengping Zhu in Tianjin Normal University. The authors wish to thanks Harry Brailovsky, Gavril Marius Berchi, Berend Aukema, Dimitry A. Gapon, and Santiago Pagola-Carte for their assistance in providing locality data, and Roman Businský for discussion on the distribution of pine trees. We are grateful to Town Peterson for his careful review of our manuscript and to Julieta Brambila for several comments on language and style.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Animal and Plant Resistance, College of Life Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Binshuixi Road 393, Tianjin, 300387, China

    Geng-Ping Zhu

  2. College of Life Sciences, Nankai University, Tianjin, China

    Dávid Rédei & Wen-Jun Bu

  3. Department of Zoology, Hungarian Natural History Museum, Budapest, Hungary

    Dávid Rédei

  4. Department of Entomology, National Museum, Prague, Czech Republic

    Petr Kment

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  1. Geng-Ping Zhu
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Correspondence to Geng-Ping Zhu.

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Zhu, GP., Rédei, D., Kment, P. et al. Effect of geographic background and equilibrium state on niche model transferability: predicting areas of invasion of Leptoglossus occidentalis . Biol Invasions 16, 1069–1081 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-013-0559-z

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