Biological Invasions

, Volume 12, Issue 11, pp 3677–3686 | Cite as

Predicting the spatial distribution of the invasive piscivorous chub (Opsariichthys uncirostris uncirostris) in the irrigation ditches of Kyushu, Japan: a tool for the risk management of biological invasions

  • Mayumi Sato
  • Yôichi Kawaguchi
  • Hiroki Yamanaka
  • Tomoyuki Okunaka
  • Jun Nakajima
  • Yasuhiro Mitani
  • Yukihiro Shimatani
  • Takahiko Mukai
  • Norio Onikura
Original Paper


The piscivorous chub (Opsariichthys uncirostris uncirostris) has widely invaded Kyushu Island in Japan, and its presence in irrigation ditches known as creeks around Ariake Bay has caused particular concern because various native freshwater fishes are also known to exist in the region. In order to examine the habitat characteristics that are related to its occurrence, we developed a species distribution model for piscivorous chub that inhabits creeks in the Kase river catchment by using geographic and habitat variables that were both biotic and abiotic. We then evaluated the model by using a different data set from the adjacent Chikugo river catchment. The resulting multiple logistic regression model, whose performance was supported by a high value of 0.881 for the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), indicated that the occurrence of piscivorous chub was strongly affected by the watercourse distance from the source populations in the Kase river. The model’s performance was still high (AUC = 0.792) when tested with the data set from the Chikugo river catchment. We also produced a GIS map that projects the predicted distribution of piscivorous chub across all creeks within the Kase river catchment. The result is likely to reflect the connectivity between static and lentic habitat and is not merely a question of the simple distance from the source populations. We also discuss how the potential distribution map can be applied to the management of piscivorous chub.


Invasive fish Ecological modelling Logistic regression GIS Species distribution map 



We are grateful to Mr. Takenori Yamashita of Sagatochikairyouku, Mr. Hirohisa Mori and Mr. Kenji Nakajima of the Kyushu Regional Agricultural Administration Office, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for information on the hydrological network of the creeks. We also thank Dr Ibrahim Djamaluddin for his assistance in making GIS files, Dr Yuichi Kano for his statistical advice, and two anonymous referees for their comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (RF-075) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mayumi Sato
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yôichi Kawaguchi
    • 1
    • 7
  • Hiroki Yamanaka
    • 3
  • Tomoyuki Okunaka
    • 1
  • Jun Nakajima
    • 1
  • Yasuhiro Mitani
    • 5
  • Yukihiro Shimatani
    • 1
  • Takahiko Mukai
    • 4
  • Norio Onikura
    • 6
  1. 1.Watershed Management Laboratory, Department of Urban and Environmental EngineeringKyushu UniversityNishi-ku, FukuokaJapan
  2. 2.BirdLife International, Asia DivisionChiyoda-ku, TokyoJapan
  3. 3.Department of Environmental Solution Technology, Faculty of Science and TechnologyRyukoku UniversitySeta-Oe, Otsu, ShigaJapan
  4. 4.Faculty of Regional StudiesGifu UniversityGifuJapan
  5. 5.Institute of Environmental Systems, Department of Civil EngineeringKyushu UniversityNishi-ku, FukuokaJapan
  6. 6.Fishery Research LaboratoryKyushu UniversityFukutsu-shi, FukuokaJapan
  7. 7.Laboratory of Ecosystem Management, Division of Ecosystem Design, Institute of Technology and ScienceThe University of Tokushima2-1 Minami-josanjimaTokushimaJapan

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