Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II—hazard analysis and risk assessment

Abstract

The second part of a seismic risk assessment study for the Iranian city of Isfahan is presented, focusing on the description of the hazard, the risk analysis, and the discussion of the results. This study utilizes the building exposure model, the fragility and the vulnerability curves illustrated in the companion paper. The earthquake occurrence source model adopted is based on the EMME14 hazard study. The site effects accounting for the soil nonlinear behavior are modeled by means of a Vs30 map derived from the topographical slope. The validity of this map is tested based on the local surface geology and geotechnical reports. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different return periods that account for site effects are generated and compared with the design spectra mandated by the Iranian national seismic design code. In addition, direct seismic monetary and human losses are estimated for two earthquake scenarios and also for 100- and 475-year return periods. We show loss maps and loss curves, offering insights on the most vulnerable building classes and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses. The results provide a basis for pre- and post-disaster emergency planning, for global and local urban planning, as well as for conceiving adequate risk mitigation strategies including devising fair earthquake insurance policies. This study may also serve as a blueprint for carrying out similar work in other urban areas of the Middle East.

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  1. 1.

    http://www.emme-gem.org/

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    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/vs30/

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the technical support of Dr. Laurentiu Danciu in the selection of GMPEs and the application of the EMME source model. We would also like to thank Dr. ‌Bahram Nadi for his suggestions on the spatial distribution of different soil types in Isfahan. We thank Dr. Fabrizio Pelli for useful discussions in interpreting the geotechnical experimental test results. We are grateful to Mauro Mangini, Dr. Ettore Fagà and Anna Mottadelli of RED for their help with GIS technical suggestions and providing the computational resources to perform the hazard and risk analyses of this study. We are also grateful for the technical comments about OpenQuake modeling provided by Dr. Vitor Silva and Dr. Michele Simionato at GEM foundation. We thank the Isfahan Urban Railway Organization for providing us with the geotechnical reports for Isfahan. Finally, we thank the associate editor and three anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions significantly increased the quality and the clarity of this manuscript.

Funding

The first author is grateful for the financial support provided by the Iranian National Elites Foundation and by the Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia. Additional financial support has been provided by the Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (EASME) under the powers delegated by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 program “HYPERION- Development of a decision support system for improved resilience & sustainable reconstruction of historic areas to cope with climate change & extreme events based on novel sensors and modelling tools”, Grant Agreement Number 821054.

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Correspondence to Mohsen Kohrangi.

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Mohsen Kohrangi: Formerly at: Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy.

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Kohrangi, M., Bazzurro, P. & Vamvatsikos, D. Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II—hazard analysis and risk assessment. Bull Earthquake Eng (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-01037-1

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Keywords

  • Urban risk assessment
  • Earthquake
  • Isfahan
  • Iran