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Development of a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Iran

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Abstract

Iran is located in one of the most seismically active regions of the world. This high seismicity combined with densely populated regions has led to several destructive earthquakes in the past, such as the M7.4 Tabas (1978), M7.4 Manjil–Rudbar (1990), or the M6.6 Bam (2003). Seismic hazard and risk assessment can provide critical information to decision makers for the development of efficient risk reduction measures. In this study, exposure models for the residential, commercial and industrial building stock were developed using recent housing census information, socio-economic data and the judgement of local experts. For each building class in the exposure model, a set of fragility and vulnerability models was derived using nonlinear time history analysis and ground motion records from the region. The exposure and vulnerability models were combined with the recently released Earthquake Model for the Middle East (EMME) to estimate probabilistic earthquake losses using the OpenQuake-engine. These results identify the regions within the country with the highest risk, the most vulnerable building classes, and the expected economic losses for a number of return periods.

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Acknowledgements

This work supported the project ‘Development of Earthquake Indirect Loss Model for Iran’ (code: P-8125) from the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES). The Authors would like to show their gratitude to IIEES for their support during the course of this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

    Hooman Motamed

  2. Understanding and Managing Extremes Graduate School, Pavia, Italy

    Alejandro Calderon & Catarina Costa

  3. Global Earthquake Model Foundation, Pavia, Italy

    Vitor Silva

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  1. Hooman Motamed
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  2. Alejandro Calderon
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  3. Vitor Silva
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  4. Catarina Costa
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Correspondence to Hooman Motamed.

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Motamed, H., Calderon, A., Silva, V. et al. Development of a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Iran. Bull Earthquake Eng 17, 1795–1823 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0515-5

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