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Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach

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Abstract

Fertility is highly determined by previous fertility intentions. Spain has one of the lowest levels of fertility in Europe. This work presents an analysis of fertility intentions in Spain based on data from the 2018 Fertility Survey conducted by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. This survey identifies the key factors influencing recent and current fertility levels as well as the fertility intentions of its participants. Using the theoretical framework of the theory of planned behaviour and via multinomial logistic regression, the main social, economic and demographic factors that drive or inhibit desired fertility are determined and analysed. Traditional approaches rank the contribution of these factors or predictors to the dependent variable using a single criterion. In this work, several decision criteria will be simultaneously considered in the ranking of fertility intention’s predictors. The obtained results show how the costs of progression to paternity and the perceived benefits of having a child significantly impact decisions regarding first maternity. The demographic background factors that are related to age and the number of children are the determinants that most influence the second and subsequent maternities. The factors that are related to the labour market, gender roles and the negative effect of the current Spanish real estate market are also identified as determinants of desired fertility.

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Fig. 1

Source: Our elaboration based on the Spanish INE

Fig. 2

Source: Our elaboration based on the Spanish INE

Fig. 3

Source: Adapted from Ajzen and Klobas (2013)

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  1. Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain

    Mar Llorente-Marrón, Montserrat Díaz-Fernández & Paz Méndez-Rodríguez

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 6 and 7.

Table 6 Decision matrix subsample “With children”.
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Table 7 Decision matrix subsample “Childless”.
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Llorente-Marrón, M., Díaz-Fernández, M. & Méndez-Rodríguez, P. Ranking fertility predictors in Spain: a multicriteria decision approach. Ann Oper Res 311, 771–798 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03669-7

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