Fall incidence in hospitalized patients and prediction of its risk factors using a weighted Poisson model

Abstract

Aim

Falls in hospital as a major cause of disability and death threaten patients’ safety and quality of life. We studied fall incidence in hospital, and predicted its risk factors using weighted Poisson (WP) model versus other models.

Method

This cross-sectional study was performed on the patients referred to two central hospitals in Qazvin, Iran between 2017 and 2019. The data were collected using the Morse scale and fall reporting forms in the hospital patient safety units (288 falls). Factors including age, gender, time of fall, fall location, cause of fall and its complications, drugs administrated, disease history, post-fall care measures, presence of companion, and length of hospital stay were assessed. The WP model was compared with other models.

Results

Fall incidence was 2.5 per 1000 patient days. Among them, 62.5% were elderly (mean age 65.7 ± 19.21 yr). Using the WP model, age, gender, fall location and fall cause, drugs administered, post-fall care measures (P < 0.001), and the presence of companion were identified as risk factors for falling (P < 0.001) Older females, those without a companion, and those without post-fall care measures and with medication history were at a higher risk. Falls from bed were the prevalent type of fall (IRR = 1.65). Falls in the internal ward were lower than in other wards (IRR = 0.67).

Conclusion

The WP model is suggested as an appropriate model to predict fall risk factors. Fall rate may be reduced by combining information on risk factors with the strategies of training nurses or caregivers, or making possible changes in patients’ environment.

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Data availability

The authors declare that data and material are available.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the staff in the patient safety units of Rajaee and Velayat hospitals. This study was financially supported by Qazvin University of Medical Science, Qazvin, Iran.

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Authors

Contributions

Siamak Yaghoubi contributed to conception and design, revising critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published.

Somayeh Ahmadi Gooraji contributed to conception and design, analysis and interpretation of data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published.

Maryam Habibi & Farideh Torkaman contributed to data collecting, and final approval of the version to be published.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Somayeh Ahmadi Gooraji.

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This study was approved by the ethics committee and the institutional review board (Approval number IR.QUMS.REC.1397.044) of Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran.

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Yaghoubi, S., Gooraji, S.A., Habibi, M. et al. Fall incidence in hospitalized patients and prediction of its risk factors using a weighted Poisson model. J Public Health (Berl.) (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-021-01476-3

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Keywords

  • Accidental fall
  • Hospitalization
  • Risk factors
  • Poisson distribution
  • Linear model
  • Generalized linear models