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Sociological challenges for Egypt’s development: 1981–2013

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Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which women’s education, fertility rate, corruption and urbanization affects long-term economic growth in Egypt. We are particularly interested in the impact of female education and fertility rate on economic growth, but we also examine the relationship between economic growth and corruption. The results suggest that investments in female education can reduce fertility rate with a small but significant immediate effect. As the fertility rate increases real GDP growth decreases with a lag of 2 years. The immediate effect of greater female education on real GDP is negative but overall it has a positive impact when lags are taken into account. Interestingly, the immediate effect of urbanization on real GDP growth was negative and turned to be positive on the long run. Finally, corruption was found to have a negative impact on GDP growth in Egypt over our studied time period.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Faculty of Management Technology, German University in Cairo, Al Tagamoa Al Khames, New Cairo City, 11835, Egypt

    Dina M. Yousri & Christian Richter

Authors
  1. Dina M. Yousri
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  2. Christian Richter
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christian Richter.

Appendix

Appendix

Modeling structural breaks was done using dummy variables for the following periods;

Dummy variable

Year

Event

D4

1986

Major Strikes, Conscript of Central Security Forces, Egypt

D2

1988

The Iran–Iraq War ends, with an estimated one million lives lost.

Al-Qaeda is formed by Osama bin Laden.

Thousands riot in Algiers, Algeria against the National Liberation Front government

An independent State of Palestine is proclaimed at the Palestinian National Council meeting in Algiers,

D4

1989

Israel hands over Taba to Egypt, ending a seven-year territorial dispute.

D4,3,1

1991

Oil Price Collapse

D5

1992

Gama’a al-Islamiyya Islamic Group begins five-year campaign of attacks on government and tourist targets, culminating in killing of 62 people at Luxor historic site in 1997.

D5

1995

D4

1997

D4,3

2001

11/09 Terrorist Attack USA

D4

2003

Iraq Invasion

D5

2004

Sini Terriost Attacks where 34 was killed and 171 injured

D2

2008

Egyptian general strike on 6 April 2008, by Egyptian workers, primarily in the state-run textile industry,

D3

2009

Twenty-six members of an alleged cell of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah go on trial in Cairo on charges of plotting attacks in Egypt and helping to send weapons to Hamas in Gaza.

D1,D3

2011

25TH of January Egyptian Revolution

D4

2012

presidential elections were held and Mohamed Morsi won

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Yousri, D.M., Richter, C. Sociological challenges for Egypt’s development: 1981–2013. Int Econ Econ Policy 15, 727–742 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-018-0414-x

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