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Conversion of Norway spruce forests in the face of climate change: a case study in Central Europe

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Abstract

Steadily increasing damage to Norway spruce forests in Europe has caused researchers and managers to consider whether these forests can be converted to more stable ecosystems. In a central European mountain region, we investigated whether management systems (MSs) specified by regional stakeholders provide sound alternatives to the currently applied management. We used the forest model Sibyla to explore whether the tested MSs differ in their sensitivity to climate change in terms of altered biomass production, stand structure, forest damage, and financial outcome. The tested MSs were no-management (NM), currently applied management (BAU), and management based on the preferences of forest managers (FM) or on the preferences of other stakeholders (OSH). With NM, spruce remained dominant during the simulation period 2010–2100, and the rate of damage significantly increased. Spruce also remained dominant with FM, while the abundance of non-spruce species significantly increased with BAU and OSH. The rate of salvage logging converged at 50% of the total harvest for all MSs up to 2050. Climate change reduced biomass production (−15%) with all MSs but had a negligible effect on biodiversity indicators. The average initial value of the simulated stands was 20,000 € ha−1 and the nominal value in 2100 was between 1900 and 10,900 € ha−1. The Net Present Value calculated with the 2% interest rate was negative during the whole simulation period (−5600 to −18,500 € ha−1 in 2100). Effect of climate change on all financial indicators was negative. Our findings indicate that secondary spruce forests are highly vulnerable and that the systems proposed by both forest managers and other regional stakeholders failed to significantly reduce forest damage and stabilize forest production.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the EC 7FP project ARANGE (FP7-289437-ARANGE), projects supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under Contracts Nos. DO7RP-0030-11 and APVV-0111-10, and projects QJ 1220316 and QJ 1220317 supported by the National Agency for Agriculture Research of the Czech Republic.

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  1. National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92, Zvolen, Slovak Republic

    Tomáš Hlásny, Ivan Barka, Joerg Roessiger, Ladislav Kulla, Zuzana Sarvašová, Tomáš Bucha & Miroslav Kovalčík

  2. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic

    Tomáš Hlásny, Ivan Barka, Jiří Trombik, Zuzana Sarvašová & Tomáš Čihák

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  1. Tomáš Hlásny
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Correspondence to Jiří Trombik.

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Communicated by Manfred J. Lexer.

This article originates from the conference “Mountain Forest Management in a Changing World”, held 7–9 July 2015 in Smokovec, High Tatra Mountains, Slovakia.

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Hlásny, T., Barka, I., Roessiger, J. et al. Conversion of Norway spruce forests in the face of climate change: a case study in Central Europe. Eur J Forest Res 136, 1013–1028 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1028-5

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