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Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of global mean temperature rises are worrisome for coffee crop due to the intolerance of the Arabica species to high air temperature variations. The crop has a large participation in the Brazilian trade balance; therefore, in this study, the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) were assessed in the areas of Southeast Brazil in future climate change scenarios. Simulations of the Eta Regional Climate Model at 5-km resolution used in this study were generated from a second dynamic downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model runs. The projections adopted two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considered the period 2011–2100. The projections indicated a large reduction of about 20 to 60% of the areas currently suitable for coffee cultivation in Southeast Brazil. In the RCP8.5 scenario, at the end of century, coffee cultivation is suitable only in elevated mountain areas, which would pose difficulties to farming management due to the operation of agricultural machinery in mountain areas. In addition, coffee cultivation in these regions could produce environmental impacts in the remnant Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Areas of high climatic risk increase due to temperature increase. The projections showed that the potential yield could be reduced by about 25% by the end of the twenty-first century. These results of potential coffee yield in the future climate indicate a need for adaptation studies of Arabica coffee cultivation.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) for the grant 2014/00192-0, Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the grants 457874/2014-7 and 308035/2013-5, the MCTI/UNDP for the grant BRA/10/G32, and the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) the project INCT for Climate Change (MCTI/CNPq).

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  1. Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC-INPE), Rod Pres Dutra km 39, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

    Priscila da Silva Tavares, Sin Chan Chou, Adan Juliano de Paula Silva & André de Arruda Lyra

  2. Earth System Science Centre (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, Jardim da Granja, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

    Angélica Giarolla

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  1. Priscila da Silva Tavares
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Correspondence to Priscila da Silva Tavares.

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Tavares, P.d.S., Giarolla, A., Chou, S.C. et al. Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in southeast Brazil. Reg Environ Change 18, 873–883 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z

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