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Impact assessment of climate change on farming systems in the South Mediterranean area: a Tunisian case study

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Abstract

This study considers a quantitative approach for assessing the performance of Tunisian farming systems to face climate change. It is based on the resilience concept and the calculation, with a modelling chain, of three indicators: land stock, labour stock, and income flux. Two system states, “base” and “climate change”, and a time horizon of 2010–2025, are developed and compared for representative farming systems. The study shows that 55% of the farming systems were identified as being resilient to climate change. They are diversified and mostly grow cereals, vegetables, and forage crops combined with livestock, increasing their capability to mitigate climate change by reorganizing crop activities. 35% of the farms identified as being non-resilient are dominated by orchards, or cereals and orchards. They showed an important drop in farm income (−45%), mainly due to their inability to adapt their cropping systems to water stress and soil salinity. Finally, only 10% were identified as being poorly resilient farming systems. Those farms have mainly intensified cereal cropping systems based on a strategy of purchasing land to increase the surface area of profitable activities (forage and livestock). Overall, the methodology can be adapted for other dry land areas in the Mediterranean region and help experts and policy-makers to propose and test strategies for adapting to climate change.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), 3191 Route de Mende, 34093, Montpellier Cedex, France

    Imen Souissi, Guillermo Flichman & Hatem Belhouchette

  2. Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer (INSTM), Centre la Goulette, Port de pêche, 2060, La Goulette, Tunisia

    Imen Souissi

  3. Université Montpellier 1, UMR5474 LAMETA, 34000, Montpellier, France

    Jean Marie Boisson

  4. Institut National de Recherche en Génie-Rural, Eaux et Forêts (INRGREF), BP 10, 2080, Ariana, Tunisia

    Insaf Mekki

  5. UMR LAE, INRA, Université de Lorraine, 68021, Colmar, France

    Olivier Therond

  6. INP Toulouse, UMR 1248 AGIR, BP 52627, 31326, Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France

    Olivier Therond

  7. SupAgro Montpellier, UMR-System, Bat. 27, 2, Place Viala, 34060, Montpellier Cedex 2, France

    Jacques Wery

  8. CIHEAM-IAMM, UMR-System, Bat. 27, 2, Place Viala, 34060, Montpellier Cedex 2, France

    Hatem Belhouchette

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  1. Imen Souissi
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  2. Jean Marie Boisson
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  3. Insaf Mekki
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Correspondence to Imen Souissi.

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Souissi, I., Boisson, J.M., Mekki, I. et al. Impact assessment of climate change on farming systems in the South Mediterranean area: a Tunisian case study. Reg Environ Change 18, 637–650 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1130-8

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