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Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality

Abstract

Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections indicate that a sizable part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. In northern India, the average number of days with extreme heat stress condition during pre-monsoon hot season will reach 30. The intensification of heat waves might lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the India Meteorological Department, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Ministry of Home Affairs (Government of India) for making the climate model and socioeconomic data available. The authors would also like to acknowledge Louise Krol from Monash University for her help in editing the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Subimal Ghosh.

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Editor: Wolfgang Cramer.

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Murari, K.K., Ghosh, S., Patwardhan, A. et al. Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality. Reg Environ Change 15, 569–579 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6

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Keywords

  • Heat wave
  • Mortality
  • CMIP5
  • Heat stress
  • Adaptation
  • Climate extremes