Abstract
Future climate conditions are likely to affect inland waterway transport in Europe. According to some climate scenarios, in summer, in the river Rhine, periods with low water levels are likely to occur more often and become more serious. Then inland waterway transport carriers will experience more severe restrictions on the load factor of their inland ships, which implies a stronger reduction in transport capacity in the market. Transport prices will rise under such conditions. Some studies reviewed in this paper find that at extremely low water levels, the price per tonne for inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area will almost double. These increased transport prices result in welfare losses. For the dry summer in 2003, the losses for North West Europe are estimated to sum up to around €480 million. Increased transport prices trigger adaptation. Inland waterway carriers may use smaller vessels, and shippers have the opportunity to shift from inland waterway transport to alternative transport modes in periods with low water levels. This effect is probably rather modest, however, with a modal shift to road and rail smaller than 10 %. Also, changes in transport costs may lead to relocation of certain economic activities in the long run.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
In addition, the largest part of inland waterway transport in Europe (measured in tonnes) takes place on the river Rhine (CCNR 2007). The most important inland waterways in North America are the Great Lakes and the Mississippi river and its major tributaries.
For a review of studies focusing on effects of climate change and weather conditions on all transport modes covering both freight transport and traveler transport, we refer to Koetse and Rietveld (2009). This study focuses on inland waterway transport only.
River dikes are heavily put to the test in periods of high water levels, and they may break as a result of the extra pressure inland waterway vessels impose on these dikes during high water levels.
The Rhine fleet is defined as the fleets of the Rhine countries: the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg, Germany, France and Switzerland.
Ideally, we would have shown the figures in Table 4 for the individual Rhine countries. However, these data are not available without double counting. Nevertheless, it can be said with certainty that more than 90 % of the total number of tonnes transported on inland waterways in the EU27 is transported within the six Rhine countries.
This market comprises inland waterway traffic on the Rhine in Germany (including Dutch–German border-crossing traffic) plus traffic on the Moselle.
The Northwestern European inland waterway transport market comprises the Rhine market, the Dutch domestic market, the North German market and the so-called north–south market (inland waterway traffic between the Netherlands, Belgium and France).
Note that in a strict sense, this is not a problem related to climate change, but it can be used to estimate the effects of a blockage of rivers due to high water.
For a comparison, the largest inland port in Europe, Duisburg, transshipped 125 million tonnes in 2011 (TLN 2012).
Also, this case is not related to climate change but can be used to estimate the effects of a blockage of rivers due to extreme water.
Note that the benefits are highest in the most extreme KNMI’06 climate scenario.
Also, indirect and external effects are not included in the analysis, and the benefits are based on the assumption that water levels representing the most extreme climate scenario become normal.
The difference in dominant absorption mode (road or rail) may be explained because the two studies focus on different areas in the Rhine area. The Krekt et al.’s (2011) study focuses on the Netherlands (with the ports of Rotterdam and Amsterdam being major nodes) where, compared to the Jonkeren et al.’s (2011a, b) study—which focuses on middle Germany—more origin and destination nodes for rail transport are present. Consequently, rail transport likely is a cheaper alternative for inland waterway transport in Krekt et al. (2011).
In the very long run, when plants have to be rebuilt anyhow, relocation may be a more favorable adaptation option.
References
Bogmans C (2012) Climate change adaptation of thermal power plants. Working paper, VU University
CCNR European Commission (2007) Market observation for inland navigation in Europe, 2007–1. Central Commission for Navigation on the Rhine, Strasbourg
CCNR European Commission (2011) Inland Navigation in Europe; Market observation 2011:1. Central Commission for Navigation on the Rhine, Strasbourg
De Leeuw van Weenen RP, Quispel M, Visser J (2011) Closure of River Rhine at the Lorelei Rock: estimate of impact and allocation of damage. Reference R20110191/31639000/RLE/EGR, NEA, Zoetermeer
Demirel E (2001) Ecnomic models for inland navigation in the context of climate change. PhD dissertation, VU University, Amsterdam
Eurostat (2012) http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/introduction. Accessed 06 Feb 2013
FAF3 (2013) http://faf.ornl.gov/fafweb/Extraction0.aspx. Freight Analysis Framework Version 3, Center for Transportation Analysis. Accessed 12 Feb 2013
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) (2011) Study of scenarios for the discharge regime of the Rhine. Report no. 188, Koblenz, Germany
Johannessen OM, Bengtsson L, Miles MW, Kuzmina SI, Semenov VA, Alekseev GV, Nagurnyi AP, Zakharov VF, Bobylev LP, Pettersson LH, Hasselmann K, Cattle HP (2004) Arctic climate change: observed and modeled temperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus 56A:328–341
Jonkeren OE (2009) Adaptation to climate change in inland waterway transport. Dissertation, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Jonkeren O, Rietveld P, van Ommeren J (2007) Climate change and inland waterway transport: welfare effects of low water levels on the river Rhine. J Transp Econ Policy 41(3):387–411
Jonkeren O, Demirel E, van Ommeren J, Rietveld P (2011a) Endogenous transport prices and trade imbalances. J Econ Geogr 11:509–527
Jonkeren O, Jourquin B, Rietveld P (2011b) Modal-split effects of climate change: the effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the River Rhine area. Transp Res Part A 45(10):1007–1019
Jonkeren O, van Ommeren J, Rietveld P (2012) Freight prices, fuel prices, and speed. J Transp Econ Policy 46(2):175–188
Klein Tank AMG, Lenderink G (2009) Climate change in the Netherlands: supplements to the KNMI’06 scenarios. KNMI, De Bilt
Koetse MJ, Rietveld P (2009) The impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empirical findings. Transp Res Part D 14:205–221
Koetse MJ, Rietveld P (2012) Adaptation to climate change in the transport sector. Transp Rev Transnatl Transdiscipl J. doi:10.1080/01441647.2012.657716
Krekt AH, van der Laan TJ, van der Meer RAE, Turpijn B, Jonkeren OE, van der Toorn A, Mosselman E, van Meijeren J, Groen T (2011) Climate change and inland waterway transport: impacts on the sector, the Port of Rotterdam and potential solutions. KfC report number KfC/037/2011, ISBN/EAN 978-94-90070-434
Kwadijk JCJ, Rotmans J (1995) The impact of climate change on the River Rhine, a scenario study. Clim Change 30:397–425
MacKenzie CA, Barker K, Grant FH (2011) Evaluating the consequences of an inland waterway port closure with a dynamic multiregional interdependence model. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern A Syst Hum 42:2:359–370
Marchand D, Sanderson M, Howe D, Alpaugh C (1988) Climatic change and Great Lakes levels, the impact on shipping. Clim Change 12:107–133
Middelkoop H, Kwadijk JCJ (2001) Towards integrated assessment of the implications of global change for water management—the Rhine experience. Phys Chem Earth 26(7–8):553–560
Middelkoop H, Daamen K, Gellens D, Grabs W, Kwadijk JCJ, Lang H, Parmet BWAH, Schädler B, Schula J, Wilke K (2001) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Clim Change 49:105–128
Millerd F (1996) The impact of water level changes on commercial navigation in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River. Can J Reg Sci 19(1):119–130
Millerd F (2005) The economic impact of climate change on Canadian commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. Can Water Resour J 30(4):269–280
Nilson E, Lingeman I, Klein B, Krahe P (2012) ECCONET deliverable 1.4: impact of hydrological change on navigation conditions. EU FP7, contract number 233886-FP7
Olsen JR, Zepp LJ, Dager CA (2005) Climate impacts on inland navigation. World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2005, May 15–19, Anchorage
Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process—a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22:1543–1556
RIZA HKV, Arcadis KIWA, Korbee & Hovelynck, Klopstra D, Versteeg R, Kroon T (2005) Droogtestudie Nederland; Aard, ernst en omvang van watertekorten in Nederland, RIZA rapport 2005.016
Scholten A, Rothstein B (2010) Critical parameters for mass-cargo affine industries due to climate change in Germany. In: Leal Filho W (ed) Social, economic and political aspects of climate change. Springer. ISBN 978-3-642-14775-3
Small KE, Verhoef ET (2007) The economics of urban transportation. Routledge, London
Somanathan S, Flynn PC, Szymanski JK (2007) Feasibility of a Sea Route through the Canadian Arctic. Marit Econ Logist 9(4):324–334
Te Linde AH, Aerts JCJH, Bakker AMR, Kwadijk JCJ (2010) Simulating low-probability peak discharges for the Rhine basin using resampled climate modeling data. Water Resour Res. doi:10.1029/2009WR007707
TLN (2012) Recordoverslag haven Duisburg in 2011. http://www.tln.nl/bedrijf.html?id=37512. Accessed 06 Feb 2013
USGCRP (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. In: Karl TR, Melillo JM, Peterson TC (eds) United States global change research program. Cambridge University Press, New York
Van den Hurk B, Tank AK., Lenderink G, van Ulden A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Katsman C, van den Brink H, Keller F, Bessembinder J, Burgers G, Komen G, Hazeleger W, Drijfhout S (2006) KNMI climate change scenarios 2006 for the Netherlands. KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006-01. KNMI, De Bilt
Van Deursen WPA (2002) Climate change in the Rhine and Meuse River Basins. Carthago Consultancy, Rotterdam in Dutch
Walker WE, Harremoes P, Rotmans J, van der Sluijs JP, van Asselt MBA, Janssen P, Krayer von Krauss MP (2003) Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr Assess 4(1):5–17
Acknowledgments
This paper is written within the context of the Dutch national research programs Climate changes Spatial Planning and Knowledge for Climate. These climate research programs were initiated by the Dutch government to support research regarding adaptation and land use-related mitigation strategies to climate change in the Netherlands.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jonkeren, O., Rietveld, P., van Ommeren, J. et al. Climate change and economic consequences for inland waterway transport in Europe. Reg Environ Change 14, 953–965 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0441-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0441-7