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Logistic regression modelling of storm-induced shallow landsliding in time and space on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong

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Abstract

This study is aimed at developing a method for modelling the probability of landsliding using a geographical information system (GIS), rainstorm events and associated landslide distributions, with an attempt to assess where landslides are likely to occur when certain rainstorm events happen. This research focuses on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. In order to derive a logistic regression model for statistical prediction of the probability of landsliding, topographic attributes derived from digital elevation model (DEM) data are combined with a variety of other digital datasets including 24 h rainfall, lithology and vegetation cover in a GIS. The model was then applied to given rainstorm events and rainfalls of a variety of periods of return time in order to predict the probability of landsliding on natural slopes in space and time. The modelling techniques described here can be used to develop effective mitigation strategies.

Résumé

Cette étude a pour but le développement d’une méthode de modélisation de la probabilité de déclenchement de glissements de terrain, en utilisant un système d’information géographique (SIG), les répartitions des pluies torrentielles et les glissements associés. Elle comporte une tentative de prédiction de la localisation du déclenchement des glissements en fonction d’événements de pluies torrentielles. Cette recherche concerne l’île de Lantau, à Hong Kong. Les attributs topographiques issus des données d’un modèle numérique de terrain (MNT) sont associés à d’autres séries de données, dont la pluie journalière, la lithologie et la végétation, dans un système d’information géographique, afin de réaliser un modèle de régression statistique pour la prédiction du déclenchement des glissements de terrain. Ce modèle a été alors appliqué à des pluies torrentielles et des pluies de différentes périodes de retour, pour prévoir la probabilité de déclenchement de glissements de terrain sur des pentes naturelles dans l’espace et le temps. Les techniques de modélisation décrites peuvent être utilisées pour développer des stratégies concrètes de prévention.

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Acknowledgements

Funding for this research was provided by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors wish to express their sincere appreciation for the generous support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China

    F. C. Dai, C. F. Lee & L. G. Tham

  2. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9825, 100029, Beijing , China

    F. C. Dai

  3. Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering Department, Hong Kong, China

    K. C. Ng & W. L. Shum

Authors
  1. F. C. Dai
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  2. C. F. Lee
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  3. L. G. Tham
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  4. K. C. Ng
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  5. W. L. Shum
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Correspondence to C. F. Lee.

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Dai, F.C., Lee, C.F., Tham, L.G. et al. Logistic regression modelling of storm-induced shallow landsliding in time and space on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Bull Eng Geol Environ 63, 315–327 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-004-0245-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-004-0245-6

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