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Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of Researchers and Local Knowledge Holders

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How will climate change affect the sustainability of Arctic villages over the next 40 years? This question motivated a collaboration of 23 researchers and four Arctic communities (Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA) in or near the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. We drew on existing research and local knowledge to examine potential effects of climate change, petroleum development, tourism, and government spending cutbacks on the sustainability of four Arctic villages. We used data across eight disciplines to develop an Arctic Community Synthesis Model and a Web-based, interactive Possible Futures Model. Results suggested that climate warming will increase vegetation biomass within the herd’s summer range. However, despite forage increasing, the herd was projected as likely to decline with a warming climate because of increased insect harassment in the summer and potentially greater winter snow depths. There was a strong negative correlation between hypothetical, development-induced displacement of cows and calves from utilized calving grounds and calf survival during June. The results suggested that climate warming coupled with petroleum development would cause a decline in caribou harvest by local communities. Because the Synthesis Model inherits uncertainties associated with each component model, sensitivity analysis is required. Scientists and stakeholders agreed that (1) although simulation models are incomplete abstractions of the real world, they helped bring scientific and community knowledge together, and (2) relationships established across disciplines and between scientists and communities were a valuable outcome of the study. Additional project materials, including the Web-based Possible Futures Model, are available at http://www.taiga.net/sustain.

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Acknowledgements

zWe thank our partner communities for joining us in this study: Old Crow, Yukon Territory, Canada; Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada; Fort McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada; and Arctic Village, Alaska, USA. We extend a special acknowledgment and thank you to those individuals who contributed to the project’s documentation of local knowledge at focus group and community meetings. We also acknowledge primary support for this research by the US National Science Foundation Arctic System Science Program (OPP 9521459). Additional funding for the Sustainability of Arctic Communities Project has come from in-kind contributions of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and grants from ARCO Alaska, the US Man in the Biosphere program, Environment Canada, and the Wildlife Management Institute. A special thank you is extended to Doug Urquhart for his outstanding design contributions to the Possible Futures Model and to Dr. Tony Starfield for constructive criticism throughout. We thank Eric Lambin and an anonymous reviewer for comments on the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Leverett, Massachusetts, 01054, USA

    Jack A. Kruse

  2. Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA

    Robert G. White, F. Stuart Chapin III, David R. Klein & Gary P. Kofinas

  3. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, 22903, USA

    Howard E. Epstein

  4. Inuvialuit Hunters & Trappers Committee, Aklavik, Northwest Territories, X03 0A0, Canada

    Billy Archie

  5. Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, Alaska, 99508, USA

    Matt Berman, Sharman Haley, Lee Huskey & Stephanie M. Martin

  6. Stephen R. Braund and Associates, Anchorage, Alaska, 99508, USA

    Stephen R. Braund

  7. Ft. McPherson, Northwest Territories, Canada

    Johnny Charlie Sr.

  8. ESSA Technologies Ltd., Ottawa, Ontario, K2B 5A3, Canada

    Colin J. Daniel

  9. Canadian Wildlife Service, Whitehorse, Yukon, Y1A 5B7, Canada

    Joan Eamer & Don E. Russell

  10. Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, 03755, USA

    Nick Flanders & Oran R. Young

  11. US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA

    Brad Griffith

  12. College of Rural Alaska, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA

    Bernice Joseph

  13. ABR, Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska, 99708, USA

    Stephen M. Murphy

  14. Alaska Division of Oil and Gas, Anchorage, Alaska, 99501, USA

    William Nebesky

  15. Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, 01003, USA

    Craig Nicolson

  16. Institute of Social & Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Mercer Island, Washington, 98040, USA

    Arlon Tussing

  17. Institute for Northern Forestry Cooperative Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska, Fairbanks, 99775, USA

    Marilyn D. Walker

Authors
  1. Jack A. Kruse
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  2. Robert G. White
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  3. Howard E. Epstein
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  4. Billy Archie
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  5. Matt Berman
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  6. Stephen R. Braund
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  7. F. Stuart Chapin III
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  8. Johnny Charlie Sr.
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  9. Colin J. Daniel
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  10. Joan Eamer
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  11. Nick Flanders
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  12. Brad Griffith
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  13. Sharman Haley
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  14. Lee Huskey
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  15. Bernice Joseph
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  16. David R. Klein
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  17. Gary P. Kofinas
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  18. Stephanie M. Martin
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  19. Stephen M. Murphy
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  20. William Nebesky
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  21. Craig Nicolson
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  22. Don E. Russell
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  23. Joe Tetlichi
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  24. Arlon Tussing
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  25. Marilyn D. Walker
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  26. Oran R. Young
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Correspondence to Howard E. Epstein.

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Kruse, J.A., White, R.G., Epstein, H.E. et al. Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of Researchers and Local Knowledge Holders. Ecosystems 7, 815–828 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-004-0008-z

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