Abstract
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is one of the major synoptic systems that affect the summer climate in China. Decadal prediction of the EASM is of great significance, yet few attempts have been made by far. This study represents a preliminary attempt that uses the decadal increment method to predict the decadal variability of the EASM. The 3-year increment of the decadal EASM (DI_EASMI) is firstly predicted by the leading 4 years tropical ocean and the leading 5 years sea ice over Barents Sea. These two leading predictors with quasi-10-year oscillation can explain most variance of the DI_EASMI, especially in recent decades. The predicted DI_EASMI is combined with the observed EASM at 3 years ago to get the final prediction result. The results of cross-validation and independent hindcast show that the decadal increment method can well predict decadal variability of the EASM during the recent century. The real-time prediction results show that the chance for the occurrence of strong decadal EASM would be rare in 2021. The method developed in the present study provides a new approach for decadal prediction of the EASM.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Sea ice concentration data from the Met Office Hadley are available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Extended Reconstructed SST v3b dataset are from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v3.html; the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2) are obtained at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html; and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Product v3 dataset can be downloaded at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.pressure.html.
Code availability
All the codes are programmed by NCAR Command Language. The codes are available and maintained by author.
References
Bretherton CS, Widmann M, Dymnikov VP, Wallace JM, Bladé I (1999) The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field. J Clim 12(7):1990–2009. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3c1990:TENOSD%3e2.0.CO;2
Chen LX, Zhu CW, Wang W, Zhang PQ (2001) Analysis of the characteristics of 30–60 day low-frequency oscillation over Asia during 1998 SCSMEX. Adv Atmos Sci 18:623–638. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-001-0050-0
Cohen JL, Furtado CJ, Barlow MA, Alexeev VA, Cherry JE (2012) Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett 7:014007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007
Compo GP et al (2011) The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137(654):1–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.776
Ding YH (1994) Monsoon over China. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, p 420
Ding YH, Wang ZY, Sun Y (2008) Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: observed evidences. Int J Climatol 28:1139–1161. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1615
Ding YH, Sun Y, Wang ZY, Zhu YX, Song YF (2009) Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon Part II: Possible causes. Int J Climatol 29(13):1926–1944. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1759
Ding YH et al (2013) Interdecadal and interannual variabilities of the Asian summer monsoon and its projection of future change. Chin J Atmos Sci 37(2):253–280. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12302.(inChinese)
Ding YH et al (2018) On the characteristics, driving forces and inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. Chin J Atmos Sci 42(3):533–558. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1712.17261 (in Chinese)
Doblas-Reyes FJ et al (2013) Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat Commun 4:1715. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2704
Dong X, Xue F (2016) Phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon in the 20th century. Adv Atmos Sci 33(3):330–338. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5130-7
Fan K, Wang HJ, Choi YJ (2008) A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall. Chin Sci Bull 53(4):602–609. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-008-0083-1
Goddard L et al (2012) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim Dyn 40:245–272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
Gong DY, Ho CH (2002) Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):78–71–78–74.https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014523
Guan B, Chan JCL (2006) Nonstationary of the intraseasonal oscillations associated with the Western North Pacific summer monsoon. J Clim 19:622–629. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3661.1
Guo D et al (2013) Mechanism on how the spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon. Theor Appl Climatol 115(1–2):107–119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0872-6
Guo QY, Cai JN, Shao XM, Sha WY (2003) Interdecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon and its impact on the climate of China. Acta Geol Sin 58:569–576. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2003.04.011 (in Chinese)
Ha KJ, Heo KY, Lee SS, Yun KS, Jhun JJ (2012) Variability in the East Asian monsoon: a review. Meteorol Appl 19:200–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1320
He C, Zhou TJ, Wu B (2015) The Key Oceanic Regions Responsible for the Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High and Associated Mechanisms. J Meteor Res 29(4):562–575. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-5037-3
Hu Z (1997) Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res Atoms 102(D16):19403–19412. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01052
Huang RH, Chen W, Yang BL, Zhang RH (2004a) Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle. Adv Atmos Sci 21(3):407–424. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915568
Huang RH, Huang G, We ZG (2004b) Climate variations of the summer Asian monsoon over China. Chang CP (ed) East Asian Monsoon. World Scientific, pp 564
Huang RH, Chen JL, Huang G (2007) Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv Atmos Sci 24(6):993–1023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x
Huang RH, Chen JL, Liu Y (2011) Interdecadal variation of the leading modes of summertime precipitation anomalies over eastern China and its association with water vapor transport over East Asia. Chin J Atmos Sci 35(4):589–606. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.04.01 (in Chinese)
Huang YY, Li XF (2015) The interdecadal Variation of the western Pacific subtropical high as measured by 500hPa eddy geopotential height. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 8:371–375. https://doi.org/10.3878/AOSL20150038
Huang YY, Wang HJ, Fan K, Gao YQ (2015) The western pacific subtropical high after the 1970s: westward or eastward shift? Clim Dyn 44(7–8):2035–2047. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2194-5
Huang YY, Wang B, Li XF, Wang HJ (2018) Changes in the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 51:443–455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3933-1
Huang YY, Wang HJ (2020a) A Possible Approach for Decadal Prediction of the PDO. J Meteor Res 34(1):63–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-9144-4
Huang YY, Wang HJ (2020b) Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China. Earth Space Sci 7:e2019EA000986. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000986
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631
Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys Res Lett 39:L10701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051644
Kirtman B et al (2013) Near‐term climate change: Projections and predictability. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp 953–1028
Li HM, Dai AG, Zhou TJ, Lu J (2008) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000. Clim Dyn 34(4):501–514. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7
Li HX, Chen HP, Wang HJ, Sun JQ, Ma JH (2018) Can Barents sea ice decline in spring enhance summer hot drought events over north-eastern China? J Clim 31(12):4705–4725. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLID17-0429.1
Liu HW, Zhou TJ, Zhu YX, Lin YH (2012) The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s. Chin Sci Bull 57(13):1553–1558. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434012-4991-8
Lin Z, Li F (2018) Impact of interannual variations of spring sea ice in the Barents Sea on east Asian rainfall in June. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 11:275–281. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1454249
Lü JM, Zhu CW, Ju JH, Lin X (2014) Interdecadal variability in summer precipitation over East China during the past 100 years and its possible causes. Chin J Atmos Sci 38(4):782–794. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1401.13227.(inChinese)
Mao JY, Chan JCL (2005) Intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon. J Clim 18:2388–2402. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3395.1
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2002) The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 15:722–744. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c0722:TTBOAA%3e2.0.CO;2
Meehl GA et al (2014) Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 95(2):243–267. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
Murphy AH (1988) Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon Weather Rev 116(12):2417–2424. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116%3c2417:SSBOTM%3e2.0.CO;2
Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atoms 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Si D, Ding YH, Liu YJ (2009) Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause. Chin Sci Bull 54(24):4742–4748. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-009-0385-y
Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore JH (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21(10):2283–2296. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1
Tao SY, Chen LX (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Chang CP, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Monsoon Meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–92
Tong Q, Huang YY, Duan MK, Zhao QF (2020) Possible contribution of the pdo to the eastward retreat of the western pacific subtropical high. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 100005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2020.100005
Wang B, Wu RG, Fu XH (2000a) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c1517:PEATHD%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Xiang BQ, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. P Natl A Sci 110:2718–2722. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110
Wang B et al (2018) Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance. J Clim 31:2699–2714. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0521.1
Wang HJ, Zhou GQ, Zhao Y (2000b) An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv Atmos Sci 17(2):234–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-000-0006-9
Wang HJ (2001) The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Adv Atmos Sci 18:376–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02919316
Wang HJ (2002) The instability of the East Asian summer Monsoon-ENSO relations. Adv Atmos Sci 19:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-002-0029-5
Wang HJ et al (2012) Initiating and applying the interannual increment prediction approach Advances in Climate Prediction Theory and Technique of China. China Meteorological Press, pp 120–139. (in Chinese)
Wu BY, Zhang RH, Ding YH, D’Arrigo R (2008) Distinct modes of the East Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 21:1122–1138. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1592.1
Wu BY, Zhang RH, Wang B, D’Arrigo R (2009a) On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 36. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037299
Wu BY, Zhang RH, Wang B (2009b) On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall: A further study. Adv Atmos Sci 26(4):666–678. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9009-3
Wu BY, Yang K, Zhang RH (2009c) Eurasian snow cover variability and its association with summer rainfall in China. Adv Atmos Sci 26(1):31–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0031-2
Wu B, Zhou TJ, Li C, Müller WA, Lin J (2019) Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature. Clim Dyn 53:1357–1369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04658-8
Wu GX, Chou JF, Liu YM, Zhang QY, Sun SQ (2003) Review and prospect of the study on the subtropical anticyclone. Chin J Atmos Sci 27:503e517
Xu M et al (2006) Steady decline of East Asian monsoon winds, 1969–2000: evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. J Geophys Res Atoms 111:D24111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007337
Xue F (2001) Interannual to Interdecadal variation of East Asian summer monsoon and its association with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature. Adv Atmos Sci 18:567–575. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-001-0045-x
Ye X, Zhang W, Luo M (2016) The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and East Asian summer precipitation. Atmos Sci Lett 17:531–537. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.688
Ying M, Sun SQ (2000) A study on the response of subtropical high over the western Pacific on the SST anomaly. Chin J Atmos Sci 24:193–206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10011-000-0335-3 (in Chinese)
Yu L (2013) Potential correlation between the decadal East Asian summer monsoon variability and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 6:394–397. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0040
Yu RC, Wang B, Zhou TJ (2004) Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 31(22):L22212. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021270
Yu RC, Zhou TJ (2007) Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of interdecadal change in the East Asian monsoon. J Clim 20(21):5344–5355. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1559.1
Zhang DP, Huang YY, Zhou BT, Wang HJ (2021) Is there interdecadal variation in South Asian High? J Clim 34:8089–8103. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0059.1
Zhang RH, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1999) A diagnostic study of the impact of El Nin ̃o on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci 16:229–241. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02973084
Zhang RN, Wu BY (2011) The Northern Hemisphere atmospheric response to spring Arctic sea ice anomalies in CAM 3.0 model. Chin J Atmos Sci 35(5):846–862. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.05.05 (in Chinese)
Zhang RH, Zuo Z (2011) Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China. J Clim 24(13):3309–3322. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4084.1
Zhao P, Zhang XD, Zhou XJ, Ikeda M, Yin YH (2004) The Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in the North Pacific and Its Impact on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. J Clim 17(17):3434–3447. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c3434:TSIEAI%3e2.0.CO;2
Zeng G, Sun ZB, Wang WC, Min JZ (2007) Interdecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon and associated atmospheric circulation. Adv Atmos Sci 24(5):915–926. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0915-y
Zhou TJ et al (2009) Why the western pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. J Clim 22(8):2199–2215. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2527.1
Zhou TJ, Wu B (2017) Decadal climate prediction: Scientific frontier and challenge. Adv Earth Sci 32:331–341. https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0331
Zhu YL, Wang HJ, Zhou W, Ma JH (2011) Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Clim Dyn 36(7–8):1463–1473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9
Zuo JQ, Li WJ, Sun CH, Xu L, Ren HL (2013) Impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole on the East Asian summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 30(4):1173–1186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2125-5
Funding
This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41991283].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization: D.W.Q., Y.Y.H. and H.J.W. Methodology: Y.Y.H. and H.J.W. Formal analysis and software: D.W.Q. Writing—original draft preparation: D.W.Q. Writing—review and editing: D.W.Q., Y.Y.H., and H.J.W. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
The consent was obtained from individual participants.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Qian, D., Huang, Y. & Wang, H. A preliminary attempt on decadal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon. Theor Appl Climatol 148, 1499–1511 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04011-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04011-w