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Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019

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Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall during the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) in different meteorological sub-divisions of India were analyzed using gridded rainfall data. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) was performed for detecting the trends in seasonal and annual rainfall. The results of long-term trends and their magnitudes obtained from the ITA method were compared with traditional Mann-Kendall (M-K), modified Mann-Kendall (mM-K), and linear regression analysis (LRA) methods. Significant trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were detected in almost all the sub-divisions of India. The monsoon and annual rainfall showed increasing trends in most sub-divisions of the peninsular and northwest India, whereas decreasing trends were observed in the central northeast part of the country. Winter rainfall showed decreasing trends in most of the sub-divisions of the country. Results of M-K/mM-K and LRA concurred with the trends detected by ITA. However, the ITA is more sensitive in detecting hidden trends missed out by the traditional M-K/mM-K and LRA tests. This study will provide scientific reference for assessment and proactive mitigation of climate change impacts on water resources to manage the risk of climate variability.

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The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.


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The authors would like to thank the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, for providing the daily rainfall time series data for this study. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Conceptualization: RN Singh; methodology: RN Singh and Sonam Sah; formal analysis and investigation: RN Singh, Bappa Das, and Amresh Chaudhary; writing—original draft preparation: Sonam Sah, Sunil Potekar, and RN Singh; writing—review and editing: Amresh Chaudhary, Sonam Sah, Bappa Das, and H. Pathak.

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Correspondence to RN Singh.

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Singh, R., Sah, S., Das, B. et al. Innovative trend analysis of spatio-temporal variations of rainfall in India during 1901–2019. Theor Appl Climatol 145, 821–838 (2021).

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