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Climate change impacts on pistachio cultivation areas in Iran: a simulation analysis based on CORDEX-MENA multi-model ensembles

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Abstract

Climate and especially air temperature have a direct and high impact on nut trees in arid regions. In this regard, the use of multi-model ensemble projections as more reliable models is important. In this study, based on multi-model ensembles (MME) from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment Middle East North Africa (CORDEX-MENA), the air temperature in RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 pathways in pistachio cultivation areas in Iran was projected. The period 1980 to 2017 was identified as the reference period. Due to the sensitivity of climate change and the existing uncertainties, the hourly temperatures based on the models of chilling hours (CH) and chilling portions (CP) were also used for the reference period. The results of CORDEX simulations for pistachio cultivation areas suggest that the minimum and maximum annual air temperature (MMAT) and growing season temperature (GST) at the end of the current century compared to 1980–2017 as the reference period will increase significantly to 4 °C. The downward trend of winter chill accumulation during the cold season based on observational data will confirm the increase in air temperature in pistachio cultivation areas in Iran. In the output simulation of CORDEX project, the date of flowering pistachio tree for late-maturing varieties by 2080 under representative concentration pathway (RCPs) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 will occur 16 days and 6 days sooner, respectively. The amount of heat accumulation or growing degree days (GDD) in the future in pistachio cultivation areas will be increased, and deviation from the historical period, based on RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 on average, will occur 3200 and 2600 GDD, respectively.

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Availability of data and material

https://cordex.org/data-access/

Code availability

https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BMA/index.html

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Regional Climate and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, the former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. Also, we would like to thank the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and Iranian Pistachio Research Institute (IPRI) for providing the necessary data and information.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

    Hamzeh Ahmadi & Mohammad Baaghideh

  2. Department of Geography, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

    Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari

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  1. Hamzeh Ahmadi
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  2. Mohammad Baaghideh
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  3. Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari
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Contributions

Conceived and designed the analysis: Hamzeh Ahmadi and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari

Collected the data: Hamzeh Ahmadi and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari

Contributed data or analysis tools: Hamzeh Ahmadi, Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari, and Mohammad Baaghideh

Performed the analysis: Hamzeh Ahmadi, Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari, and Mohammad Baaghideh

Wrote the paper: Hamzeh Ahmadi and Abbasali Dadashi-Roudbari

Writing—review and editing: Mohammad Baaghideh

Corresponding author: Hamzeh Ahmadi

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Correspondence to Hamzeh Ahmadi.

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Ahmadi, H., Baaghideh, M. & Dadashi-Roudbari, A. Climate change impacts on pistachio cultivation areas in Iran: a simulation analysis based on CORDEX-MENA multi-model ensembles. Theor Appl Climatol 145, 109–120 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03614-z

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