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Spatial variations of extreme precipitation events and attribution analysis in the main water resource area of the Belt and Road Initiative

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Under the background of global warming, extreme precipitations had caused important issues, and the spatiotemporal precipitation of the main water resource (MWR) area of the Belt and Road (BR) Initiative had complex conditions. Therefore, observed daily precipitation data from 351 meteorological stations were selected to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics in extreme precipitations. The Mann-Kendall trend test was utilized to detect trends of extreme precipitation indices which were derived from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), and the periodical characteristics of 4 typical extreme precipitation indices were calculated using wavelet analysis. In order to further analyze the relationship between extreme precipitation indices and global climate anomalies, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) were selected as climate indices to investigate teleconnections between extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric oscillations. Our results revealed that (Alexander et al. in J Geophys Res Atmos 111(D5): 1042–1063, 2006) the climate in the MWR had become more humid, and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation had shown a positive trend; (Allan and Soden in Science 321(5895): 1481–1484, 2008) 4 typical extreme precipitation indices exhibited multiple and overlapping cycles, while 23–32-year cycles were universal; (Limsakul and Singhruck in Atmos Res 169: 301–317, 2016) the teleconnection between large-scale circulation and extreme precipitation of MWR varied not only from region to region, but was also different at different time scales and different time periods, but had a negative effect on the whole.

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We are very grateful for the data provided by NOAA, which can be downloaded from Thanks to Torrence and Gilbert for providing wavelet software package at The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.


This work was supported by the Natural Sciences Foundation of China (No. 51779230 and U1803241).

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Qiting Zuo: methodology, validation, writing-original draft, writing-review and editing, supervision, funding acquisition. Yuxin Song: software, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, visualization, writing-review and editing. Haojie Wang: conceptualization, validation, investigation, data curation, supervision, project administration. Jialu Li: supervision, methodology, validation, project administration, investigation. Chunhui Han: writing-review and editing, formal analysis, visualization, validation

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Correspondence to Haojie Wang.

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Zuo, Q., Song, Y., Wang, H. et al. Spatial variations of extreme precipitation events and attribution analysis in the main water resource area of the Belt and Road Initiative. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 535–554 (2021).

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