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Seasonal trend analysis of minimum air temperature in La Plata river basin

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Abstract

Regional economies that depend predominantly on agriculture and livestock are heavily affected by changes in air temperature, one such case are the activities in La Plata river basin (LPB). Some studies suggest that variations in the seasonal cycle and season onset would affect efficiency in the use of radiation by vegetation. This paper evaluates the distribution of minimum temperature seasonality trends over LPB, describes the trends in the seasonal cycle, and detects changes of minimum temperature extremes characterized by the number of frost days and the frequency of warm and cold nights. The analysis includes absolute minimum temperature 0(TnMin) and minimum average temperature (TnMean) from ERA5 reanalysis for the 1980–2015 period. Significant positive trends in the amplitude of annual average TnMin and TnMean are observed over more than half the area (53.5% and 69.9% of the basin, respectively). Amplitude and phase parameters suggest that average minimum temperature underwent greater variation than absolute minimum temperature over LPB. The shifts in phase indicate that minimum temperatures occurred earlier than usual in the year considering the 35-year series. In general terms, there is a shift toward warmer conditions. This warming is evident in seasonal trends of minimum temperature as well as in the significant increase in the number of warm nights, a significant decrease of cold days and a significant decrease in the number of frost days in the highest Andes mountains in the west of the LPB.

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Data availability

ERA5 daily temperature data here used are available at Chambers (2019) ERA5-derived daily temperature summary 1980-2018 (Version 1.0) [Dataset]. Zenodo. doi:10.5281/zenodo.3403963

Change history

Notes

  1. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Climatology (CCl)/CLIVAR/ JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)

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Acknowledgment

We are grateful to the anonymous reviewers whose constructive comments and recommendations helped to improve the manuscript.

Funding

This work was supported by the Universidad Nacional del Comahue (04-H165).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geografía. Facultad de Humanidades, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Av. Argentina, 1400, Neuquén, Argentina

    Marisa G. Cogliati

  2. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), CEVARCAM, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas, Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Santa Fe, Argentina

    Gabriela V. Müller & Miguel A. Lovino

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  1. Marisa G. Cogliati
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  2. Gabriela V. Müller
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  3. Miguel A. Lovino
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Marisa Cogliati and Miguel Lovino. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Marisa Cogliati, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Marisa G. Cogliati.

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The original online version of this article was revised: The second author’s name appears with two middle names (V. V.) and the correct form is with only one V.

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Cogliati, M.G., Müller, G.V. & Lovino, M.A. Seasonal trend analysis of minimum air temperature in La Plata river basin. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 25–37 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03512-w

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