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Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico

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Abstract

Climate change is a pernicious and irrefutable reality. The objective of this work was to analyze trends in extreme temperature indices in Aguascalientes. With RClimdex 1.0 and data on daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin), 16 temperature indices were calculated. The trend in indices was determined with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (p ≤ 0.05), while the rate of change was obtained with Theil-Sen’s trend estimator. Significant positive trends were observed in 72 time series of indices associated with Tmax and in 39 time series of indices associated with Tmin. Significant negative trends were observed in 22 time series of indices associated with Tmax, and in 45 time series of indices associated with Tmin. In some regions of Aguascalientes, diurnal warming is occurring; in others, warmer or less cold nights prevail. The changes in extreme temperature indices might have severe implications in the use of irrigation water, cause physiological stress in crops, promote respiratory and cardiac diseases, and improve the reproduction cycles and populations of insects. Also, the fruit production, such as guava, could be affected under the reduction of minimum temperature, and the increase in warm days where other fruit trees are cultivated can intensify the use of chemical compensators of cold. These results are of significance for long-term economic planning and design of strategies of adaptation/mitigation to climate change. In Aguascalientes, the changes observed in extreme temperature indices could be due to climate change of a bigger scale, either regional or at the watershed level.

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Acknowledgments

The first author wants to thank the Federal Mexican Government and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) from Mexico for the scholarship granted to carry out his doctoral studies. Thanks to the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), especially to the Experimental Station Pabellon (Pabellon de Arteaga, Aguascalientes) for the permit, the international commission, and the stipend to complement the funding for the realization of his studies. In the same way, all the gratitude to the Ph.D. Yang Feng from the Climate Research Branch of Meteorological Service of Canada for providing the software. Finally, our total gratefulness to the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the Comision Nacional del Agua (CNA) and their staff of the Aguascalientes offices for sharing the databases and the information related to its management.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Management and Hydrological Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Osias Ruiz-Alvarez

  2. National Laboratory of Modeling and Remote Sensing (LNMySR) of Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP), 20660, Pabellon de Arteaga, Aguascalientes, Mexico

    Osias Ruiz-Alvarez

  3. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  4. Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Weslaco, TX, 78596, USA

    Juan Enciso-Medina

  5. Catedra CONACYT, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, 62550, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico

    Ronald Ernesto Ontiveros-Capurata

  6. Department of Atmospheric Science, Federal University of Campina Grande, Avenida Aprígio Veloso, 882, Bodocongó, Campina Grande, PB, CEP 58109-970, Brazil

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

  7. Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

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  1. Osias Ruiz-Alvarez
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Ruiz-Alvarez, O., Singh, V.P., Enciso-Medina, J. et al. Observed trends in daily temperature extreme indices in Aguascalientes, Mexico. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 1425–1445 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03391-1

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