Skip to main content

A new approach to explore climate change impact on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves

Theoretical and Applied Climatology volume 142, pages 911–928 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

Increasing the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere makes a large-scale change in atmospheric processes. Among the most dramatic effects of climate change, its impact on the type, amount, and intensity of rainfall is of particular importance. The goal of the present study was to provide a new method to investigate climate change impacts on rainfall intensity—duration—frequency (IDF) in the southwest of Iran. For this purpose, IDF curves were determined using recorded short-term rainfall from 15 stations. Then, the efficiency of the scale invariance theory was evaluated in determining IDFs by comparing IDFs resulting from observed data and IDFs estimated from the scaling model. Results demonstrated that two sets of IDFs had a good coincidence. In the next step, the data from three RCM models of the CORDEX project under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used, and daily rainfall was downscaled by the musica package. Finally, IDFs were determined for two future periods including 2025–2049 as near future and 2075–2099 as far future. The result showed that rainfall intensity decreased in the north and central parts of the region.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price includes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

References

  • Almasi P, Soltani S (2017) Assessment of the climate change impacts on flood frequency (case study: Bazoft Basin, Iran). Stoch Env Res Risk A 31(5):1171–1182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell FC (1969) Generalized rainfall-duration-frequency relationships. J Hydraul Div 95(1):311–327

    Google Scholar 

  • Burlando P, Rosso R (1996) Scaling and multiscaling models of depth-duration-frequency curves for storm precipitation. J Hydrol 187(1):45–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bougadis J, Adamowski K (2006) Scaling model of a rainfall intensity-durationfrequency relationship. Hydrol Processes 20:3747–3757

  • Chen CL (1983) Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency formulas. J Hydraul Eng 109(12):1603–1621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chow VT (1964) Handbook of applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York, pp 1–1450

    Google Scholar 

  • Daud ZM, Kassim AHM, Desa MNM, Nguyen VTV (2002) Statistical analysis of at-site extreme rainfall processes in peninsular Malaysia. International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Publication 274:L61–68

  • Endreny TA, Imbeah N (2009) Generating robust rainfall intensity–duration–frequency estimates with short-record satellite data. J Hydrol 371(1):182–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fernández J, Fita L, García-Díez M Gutiérrez JM (2010) WRF sensitivity simulations on the CORDEX African domain. In EGU general assembly conference abstracts (Vol. 12, p. 9701)

  • Ghahraman B (1995) A general dimensionless rainfall depth- duration- frequency relationship. Iran Agric Res 14:217–235

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghahraman B, Hosseini SM (2005) A new investigation on the performance of rainfall IDF models. Iran J Sci Technol Trans B Eng 29(B3):333–342

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghahreman B (1996) Updated rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship in Iran using 1-hour 10-year rainfall. J Agric Sci 6:13–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghahreman B, Abkhezr HR (2004) Reformation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relations in Iran. Sci Technol Agric Nat Resourc J

  • Ghahreman B, Saberi H (2003) Derived IDF area curves in the southern region of Iran. Nivar J 48(1):63–78

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghahreman B, Sepaskhah AR (1990a) Estimation of intensity-duration-frequency relationship in Iran using 1-hour 10- year rainfall. Researches of third International Congress of Civil Engineering Shiraz University (Iran) 5:5–73

  • Ghahreman B, Sepaskhah AR. 1990b. Estimation of 1-hr 10-yr rainfall to determine intensity-duration-frequency relationships in Iran. Researches of third International Congress of Civil Engineering Shiraz university (Iran) 5:35–55

  • Ghahreman B, Shamkuian H, Davari K (2010) Extraction of regional equations for rainfall intensity – duration- frequency precipitation using linear moment’s theory (case study: Khorasan Province). J Iran Irrigat Drain 1(4):142pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire S, Choudhary A, Dimri AP (2015) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2747-2

  • Gudmundsson L, Bremnes J, Haugen J, Engen-Skaugen T (2012) Technical note: downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations comparison of methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:3383e3390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gupta VK, Waymire E (1990) Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions. J Geophys Res-Atmos 95(D3):1999–2009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanel M, Kožín R, Heřmanovský M, Roub R (2017) An R package for assessment of statistical downscaling methods for hydrological climate change impact studies. Environ Model Softw 95:22–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson F, Sharma A (2012) A nesting model for bias correction of variability at multiple time scales in general circulation model precipitation simulations. Water Resour Res 48:W01504

    Google Scholar 

  • Kothyari UC, Garde RJ (1992) Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency formula for India. J Hydraul Eng 118(2):323–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D, Foufoula-Georgiou E (1993) A scaling model of a storm hyetograph. Water Resour Res 29(7):2345–2361

  • Koutsoyiannis D, Kozonis D, Manetas A (1998) A mathematical framework for studying rainfall intensitydurationfrequency relationships. J Hydrol 206(1):118–135

  • Kuzuha Y, Komatsu Y, Tomosugi K, Kishii T (2005) Regional flood frequency analysis, Scaling and PUB, Journal Japan Soc Hydrol and Water Resour 18(4):441–485

  • Madsen H, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Mikkelsen PS (2009) Update of regional intensity duration 562 frequency curves in Denmark: Tendency towards increased storm intensities. Atm Res 92(3):563,343–3

  • Mehrotra R, Sharma A (2016) A multivariate quantile-matching bias correction approach with auto-and cross-dependence across multiple time scales: implications for downscaling. J Clim 29:3519e3539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Menabde M, Seed A, Pegram G (1999) A simple scaling model for extreme rainfall. Water Resour Res 35(1):335–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naghettini M (2012) Application of scale invariance properties for estimating the intensity-duration-frequency relationships at Uberaba, in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Aqua-LAC 4(2):45–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen VT, Wang H (1996) Regional estimation of short-duration rainfall distribution using available daily rainfall data. Ann Arbor Press, INC., Chelsea, pp 179–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Nhat LM, Tachikawa Y, Sayama T, Takara K (2007) Regional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationships for ungauged catchments based on scaling properties. Ann Disaster Prev Res Inst, Kyoto Univ 50:33–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Noori Ghiedari MH (2009) Extraction of IDF curves for short durations from daily data using time scale characteristics of rainfall. Fifth National Conference on Watershed Management Science and Engineering (Sustainable Management of Natural Disasters). Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.Iran

  • Pagliara S, Viti C (1993) Discussion of “Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Formula for India” by Umesh C. Kothyari and Ramachandra J. Garde (February, 1992, Vol. 118, no. 2). J Hydraul Eng 119(8):962–966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Eltahir EA (2016) Future temperature in Southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nat Clim Chang 6(2):197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S (2007) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press

  • Soltani S, Helfi R, Almasi P, Modarres R (2017) Regionalization of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency using a simple scaling model. Water Resour Manag 31(13):4253–4273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vaziri F (1984) Analysis of storms and determining intensity- duration-frequency curves for different regions of Iran. Water schemes and Research Unit, Iran

    Google Scholar 

  • Vaziri F (1991) Analysis of storms in different regions of Iran. Sheikh Tusi university, Iran

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu PS, Yang TC, Lin CS (2004) Regional rainfall intensity formulas based on scaling property of rainfall. J Hydrol 295(1):108–123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zareian MJ, Eslamian S, Safavi HR (2015) A modified regionalization weighting approach for climate change impact assessment at watershed scale. Theor Appl Climatol 122(3–4):497–516

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the Climate Research Center (CCCR) for granting access to the CORDEX South Asia data (http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/).The authors also acknowledge the Iran Ministry of Energy for preparing rainfall data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, 8415683111,, Iran

    Saeid Soltani, Parisa Almasi, Razi Helfi, Reza Modarres, Poria Mohit Esfahani & Mohammad Ghadami Dehno

  2. Center of excellence on risk management and natural hazards, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, 8415683111,, Iran

    Saeid Soltani & Reza Modarres

Authors
  1. Saeid Soltani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Parisa Almasi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Razi Helfi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Reza Modarres
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Poria Mohit Esfahani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mohammad Ghadami Dehno
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Saeid Soltani.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Soltani, S., Almasi, P., Helfi, R. et al. A new approach to explore climate change impact on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency curves. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 911–928 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03309-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03309-x