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Table 4 Comparison of the impact of climate change on univariate and joint return periods of droughts with different duration and average severity amounts. The reference refers to the 1986–2018 period, and RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 are two climate projections up to 2050 (results are averaged across three GCMs and five stations within Ankara Province)

From: Climate change impact assessment on mild and extreme drought events using copulas over Ankara, Turkey

Univariate return period (year) Drought characteristics according to reference dataset Dataset Joint return period (year)
Duration (month) Average severity And Or Conditional
5 12 0.76 Reference 7 4 5
RCP 4.5 8 5 5
RCP 8.5 8 4 5
11 21 0.94 Reference 24 8 9
RCP 4.5 22 7 8
RCP 8.5 28 7 10
17 25 1.12 Reference 86 18 9
RCP 4.5 52 12 8
RCP 8.5 81 11 13
24 27 1.18 Reference 131 25 9
RCP 4.5 70 14 8
RCP 8.5 118 13 14
30 28 1.23 Reference 189 33 9
RCP 4.5 93 17 8
RCP 8.5 169 16 16