Paleoclimatic context of projected future warming in southern South America

Abstract

This paper describes changes of near-surface air temperature in southern South America from the Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21,000 years before present) to the end of the twenty-first century based on PMIP3-CMIP5 model simulations. The study shows modeled time evolution of temperature highlighting how different the projected future warming will be with respect to paleoclimatic changes documented in the region. In this context, model simulations suggest that the projected twenty-first century warming will be markedly higher than the change of temperature registered between the mid-Holocene (~ 6000 years before present) and the present. Even more, the regional warming projected by the following 60–80 years might be almost similar to or even higher than the pronounced increment of temperature developed between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present. This past/future comparison provides a new picture of the unusual warming expected for the following decades in southern South America in the context of climate changes developed through the last ca. 21,000 years.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the climate modeling groups (listed in Section 2) for producing and making available their model outputs. Marcela Tonello acknowledges support from Grants EXA883/18 and EXA913/18.

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Correspondence to Gabriel E. Silvestri.

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Berman, A.L., Silvestri, G.E. & Tonello, M.S. Paleoclimatic context of projected future warming in southern South America. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 173–181 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03196-2

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