Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

CMIP5 model biases in the climatological mean state of the western Pacific warm pool

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Biases in coupled general circulation models represent important limits for climate prediction. Based on historical runs of 26 coupled climate models of the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the error of the climatological mean of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) is investigated. The results show that simulation of the morphology of the WPWP is significantly influenced by ocean currents. The upper-ocean heat budget analysis also indicates that heat advection plays a key role in determining the shape of the WPWP during the simulation. For the shrinkage of the tropical region and south section of smaller WPWPs, both the zonal heat advection bias caused by zonal ocean currents bias and meridional heat advection bias caused by the meridional sea temperature gradient bias are the crucial factors, while for the extension of larger WPWPs, the zonal heat advection bias is more important. For the northern section of WPWPs, the horizontal heat advection biases are still responsible for the shrinkage and extension in the region from 4°N to 7°N, while in the north of 7°N, the biases of WPWP are related to that of short wave radiation. In addition, in the equator and south section of the WPWP, the advective feedback plays a key role in the development of biases.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
€32.70 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (France)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bellenge H, Guilyardi E, Leloup J, Lengaigne M, Vialard J (2014) ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn 42:1999–2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boer GJ, Lambert SJ (2001) Second order space–time climate difference statistics. Clim Dyn 17:213–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bosc C, Delcroix T, Maes C (2009) Barrier layer variability in the Western Pacific warm Pool from 2000 to 2007. J Geophys Res Oceans 114:C06023. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jc005187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boville BA, Gent PR (1998) The NCAR climate system model, version one. J Clim 11:1115–1130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown JN, Langlais C, Maes C (2014) Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5. Clim Dyn 42:3061–3076. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1931-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chelton DB, Esbensen SK, Schlax MG, Thum N, Freilich MH, Wentz FJ, Gentemann CL, McPhaden MJ, Schopf PS (2001) Observations of coupling between surface wind stress and sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific. J Clim 14:1479–1498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clement A, Seager R, Murtugudde R (2005) Why are there tropical warm pools, J. Climate 18:5294–5311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davey MK, Huddleston M, Sperber KR et al (2002) STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim Dyn 18:403–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis N, Birner T (2016) Climate model biases in the width of the tropical belt. J Clim 29:1935–1954

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Szoeke SP, Xie SP (2008) The tropical eastern Pacific seasonal cycle: assessment of errors and mechanisms in IPCC AR4 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. J Clim 21:2573–2590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113:D06104. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grose MR, Brown JN, Narsey S, Brown JR, Murphy BF, Langlais C, Gupta AS, Moise AF, Irving DB (2014) Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3. Int J Climatol 34:3382–3399

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann DL, Michelsen ML (1993) Large-Scale Effects on the Regulation of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Climate 6(11):2049–2062

  • Kessler WS (2006) The circulation of the eastern tropical Pacific: a review. Prog Oceanogr 69(2–4):181–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kessler WS, Johnson GC, Moore DW (2003) Sverdrup and nonlinear dynamics of the Pacific equatorial currents. J Phys Oceanogr 33:994–1008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiehl JT (1998) Simulation of the tropical Pacific warm-pool with the NCAR climate system model. J Clim 11:1342–1355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li G, Xie S (2012) Origins of tropical-wide SST biases in CMIP multi-model ensembles. Geophys Res Lett 39. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053777

  • Li G, Xie S (2014) Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: the excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J Clim 27:1765–1980

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maes C, Picaut J, Kuroda Y (2004) Characteristics of the convergence zone at the eastern edge of the Pacific warm pool. Geophys Res Lett 31:L11304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl019867

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maes C, Ando K, Delcroix T (2006) Observed correlation of surface salinity, temperature and barrier layer at the eastern edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06601. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl024772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McPhaden MJ, Picaut J (1990) El-Nino southern oscillation displacements of the Western equatorial Pacific warm pool. Science 250(4986):1385–1388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mechoso CR, Robertson AW, Barth N et al (1995) The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 123:2825–2838

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Covey C, McAvaney B, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2005) Overview of the coupled model Intercomparison project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86:89–93. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-1-89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller RL (1997) Tropical thermostats and low cloud cover. J Clim 10:409–440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA (2004) Quantification of modeling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430:768–772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Picaut J, Ioualalen M, Menkes C (1996) Mechanism of the zonal displacements of the Pacific warm pool: implications for ENSO. Science 274(5292):1486–1489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Picaut J, Masia F, DuPenhoat Y (1997) An advective-reflective conceptual model for the oscillatory nature of the ENSO. Science 277(5326):663–666. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5326.663

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierrehumbert RT (1995) Thermostats, radiator fins, and the runaway greenhouse. J Atmos Sci 52:1784–1806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA  (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research 108 (D14)

  • Sun Y, Sun D, Wu L, Wang F (2013) Western Pacific warm Pool and ENSO asymmetry in CMIP3 models. Adv Atmos Sci 30:940–953. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2161-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res 106(D7):7183–7192. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Ronald JS, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang G, Dommenget D, Frauen C (2015) An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability. Clim Dyn 44:95–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2154-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wyrtki K (1989) Some thoughts about the west Pacific warm pool. Proceedings of the western Pacific international meeting and work 2 shop on TOGA 2 COARE, 89–109

  • Yu Z, McCreary JP, Kessler WS, Kelly KA (2000) Influence of equatorial dynamics on the Pacific north equatorial countercurrent. J Phys Oceanogr 30:3179–3190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang G, Ramanathan V, McPhaden MJ (1995) Convection-Evaporation Feedback in the Equatorial pacific. Journal of Climate 8(12):3040–3051

  • Zheng Y, Lin J, Shinoda T (2012) The equatorial Pacific cold tongue simulated by IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Upper Ocean heat budget and feedback analysis. J Geophys Res 117. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007746

Download references

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programs Working Group on Coupled Modelling for their roles in making available the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model datasets, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41676007), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFA0604102), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (No. 41421005), and NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (No. U1406401).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yuxing Yang, Faming Wang & Jian Zheng

  2. Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yuxing Yang, Faming Wang & Jian Zheng

  3. Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, 266273, China

    Yuxing Yang, Faming Wang & Jian Zheng

Authors
  1. Yuxing Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Faming Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jian Zheng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuxing Yang.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yang, Y., Wang, F. & Zheng, J. CMIP5 model biases in the climatological mean state of the western Pacific warm pool. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 533–545 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03099-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03099-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation