Skip to main content

Assessment of temperature and rainfall changes in the Karoun River basin

Abstract

An increase in greenhouse effect leads to climate change, a rise in sea levels, higher heat waves, an increase in extreme climatic frequency, an increase in wildfire risks, and other consequences pregnant with several different natural hazards. In Karoun River basin, SW Iran, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of surface and underground water. The outputs from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are applied in simulating the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall changes in this basin. The assessments are tested based on the ability of models in reproducing the regional climatological trends. The best goodness of fit among RCP scenarios is involved through RCP 4.5. The simulated results of each scenario indicate a significant increase above 1 °C in the minimum temperature during warm months over most areas of the basin. The change in maximum temperature at most stations is linked to seasonal cold to warm transition months of the year. A reduction in autumn and winter rainfall and an increase in spring rainfall are expected for the coming three decades. The changes in rainfall pattern lead to a higher 24-h maximum precipitation which increases flooding probability especially at discharges greater than 2000 m3/s.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

References

  1. Alcamo, J., Henrichs, T., Rosch, T. (2000) World water 2025: global modelling and scenario analysis for the world commission on water for 21st century. Kassel University Press. World Water Series. Technical Report. Center of the Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Germany

  2. Chen H, Guo J, Zhang Z, YuXu C (2013) Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future. J Theor Appl Climatol 113:363–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Gary B, Philippe T (2011) Trend analysis in polls, topics, opinions and answers. HAL Id: -00601261.

  4. Goodarzi, E., Masah-Bavani, A.R., Dastoorati, M.T. Taleb, A. (2010) Grand river watershed runoff simulation and hydrological changes under the impact of climate change Yazd Heart, 4th Regional Conference Climate Change, pp 531–537. (Persian)

  5. Hasheminasab S, Ataei H, Sadeghi F (2015) Analyzed and survey of maximum temperature trend in Daryache-e-Namak Basin. J Desert Ecosyst Eng 4(6):1–14 (Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Hijioka Y, Matsuoka Y, Nishimoto H, Masui T, Kainuma M (2008) Global GHG emission scenarios under GHG concentration stabilization targets. J Glob Environ Eng 13:97–108

    Google Scholar 

  7. IPCC (2008) IPCC workshop on describing scientific uncertainties in climate change to support group Colorado. The USA

  8. IWRMC (2012) Water planning office macro Iran, Ministry of energy

  9. Kaboli SH, Akhondali AM, Massah-Bavani AR, Radmanesh F (2012) A downscaling model based on K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) non-parametric method. J Water Soil (Agric Sci Technol) 26(4):799–808 (Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Klein Tank AMG, Peterson TC, Quadir DA, Dorji S, Zou X, Tang H, Santhosh K et al (2006) Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and South Asia. J Geophys Res: Atmos 111(16):D16

    Google Scholar 

  11. Leong Tan M, Ibrahim ABL, Yusop Z, Chan NW (2017) Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Atmospheric Research 189:1–10

  12. Mansouri B, Ahmadzadeh H, Massah Bavani A, Morid S, Delavar M, Lotfi S (2014) Change impacts on water resources in Zarrinehrud Basin using SWAT model. J Water Soil 28(6):1191–1203 (Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Massah Bavani AR, Morid S (2005) The effects of climate change on water resources and agricultural production case study: Zayandehrood basin. J Water Resour Res Iran 47:1–40

    Google Scholar 

  14. Massah-Bavani AR (2006) Assessing the risks of climate change and its impact on water resources case study: Zayanderud Basin. Department of Water Structures. Tarbiat Modarres University. (Persian)

  15. O’Brien KL, Wolf J (2010) A values-based approach to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1(2):232–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Riahi K, Grübler A, Nakicenovic N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74:887–935

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Scheffran J, Battaglini A (2011) Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming. J Reg Environ Chang 11(1):27–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Sobhani B, Fateminiya FS (2014) Modelling of climatic parameters in province of southern Khorasan. J Phys Geogr Res Q 46:311–332 (Persian)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Steele-Dunne S, Lynch P, McGrath R, Semmler T, Wang S, Hanafin JN (2008) The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. J Hydrol 356:28–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Steffen W, Persson Å, Deutsch L, Zalasiewicz J, Williams M, Richardson K, ... Molina M (2011) The Anthropocene: from global change to planetary stewardship. Ambio 40(7):739–761

  21. Tayebiyan A, Ahmad Mohammad T, Ghazali A, Malek MA, Mashohor S (2016) Potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature at Jor Dam Lake. J Pertanika Sci Technol 24(1):213–224

    Google Scholar 

  22. Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Van Vuuren DP, Eickhout B, Lucas PL, den Elzen MGJ (2006) Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing—exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework. Energy J 27:201–233

    Google Scholar 

  24. Van Vuuren DP, Den Elzen MGJ, Lucas PL, Eickhout B, Strengers BJ, Van Ruijven B, Wonink S, Van Houdt R (2007) Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Clim Chang 81:119–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Van Vuuren DP, Riahi K, Moss R, Thomson A, Nakićenović N, Edmonds J, Kram T, Berkhout F, Swart R, Janetos A et al (2011) Developing new scenarios as a thread for future climate research. Glob Environ Chang

  26. Wise M, Calvin K, Thomson A, Clarke L, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands R, Smith SJ, Janetos A, Edmonds J (2009) Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 324:1183–1186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Yang XL, Xu LR, Liu KK, Li CH, HU J, Xia XH (2012) Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Zhangweinan River basin during the last 53 years. J Proced Environ Sci 13:1966–1974

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Zahabiyoun B, Goodarzi MR, Massh-Bavani AR (2011) Application of the SWAT model in the Gharesou river basin under climate change. J Clim Res 1(3–4):45–60

    Google Scholar 

  29. Zulkarnain H, Supiah S, Sobri H (2014) Application of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulating and downscaling of rainfall and temperature. J Theor Appl Climatol 116:243–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Alson Prior for her assistance throughout all the aspects of this study and for her help in writing the manuscript.

Funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Iran Water Resources Management Company (IWRMC) and The Vice Chancellor for Research and Technology in the University of Isfahan for the financial support.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dariush Rahimi.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rahimi, D., Hasheminasab, S. & Abdollahi, K. Assessment of temperature and rainfall changes in the Karoun River basin. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 2829–2839 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02771-6

Download citation